{"id":7304,"date":"2013-02-06T08:03:34","date_gmt":"2013-02-06T13:03:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/?p=7304"},"modified":"2013-02-06T12:44:16","modified_gmt":"2013-02-06T17:44:16","slug":"can-the-gop-challenge-bill-owens-in-2014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/2013\/02\/06\/can-the-gop-challenge-bill-owens-in-2014\/","title":{"rendered":"Can the GOP challenge Bill Owens in 2014?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>One of the most dramatic moments on election night 2012 was Matt Doheny’s rapid and final concession speech.\u00a0 He announced that he was stepping away from politics and he questioned whether the NY-21 House district is winnable for Republicans.<\/p>\n

“If you look at the results today, I don\u2019t know how Republican this 21st Congressional District is anymore,” Doheny said.\u00a0 “You\u2019ll see with the President Obama numbers. It was very challenging.”<\/p>\n

There’s no doubt that GOP leaders in the North Country have faced a headwind the last few years, with a Conservative Party insurrection on their right and a resurgent Democratic Party on their left.<\/p>\n

But it’s worth noting that Owens looked very vulnerable in 2009, 2010 and again in 2012.\u00a0 Doheny came darned close each time.<\/p>\n

So it’s not like the 21st district is dyed indigo.\u00a0 In theory, this should be a highly competitive district going forward.\u00a0 The problem, put simply, is recruiting.<\/p>\n

In a quarter century of watching politics, I’ve concluded that half of winning an election is finding the right candidate, with the right history and the right talent on the stump.<\/p>\n

In 2009, Bill Owens represented a coup for Democrats.\u00a0\u00a0 They fielded a guy who could stay in the game, offering a plausible alternative in a district that had always — and I mean always — gone Republican.<\/p>\n

Owens kept it close, stayed on message, and was able to capitalize on conservative disarray.\u00a0 He was the right candidate for the right race.<\/p>\n

So the question now is whether Republicans can steal from that play book.\u00a0\u00a0 Can they find a man or a woman with the resume, the right political stripes, and the patience to go hard at Owens?<\/p>\n

First, let’s talk about the hurdles to pulling that off.<\/p>\n

The biggest challenge is that so many moderate Republicans have either sided with Owens or left the GOP altogether.<\/p>\n

Doheny is out.\u00a0 Big names like Teresa Sayward and Dede Scozzafava have been sidelined by tea party venom, triggered in large part by their moderate social views.<\/p>\n

So who does that leave on the bench?<\/p>\n

One of the big names in North Country politics, Republican state Senator Joe Griffo, lives outside the newly redrawn 21st district and would have to relocate to take on a risky race.<\/p>\n

State Senator Patty Ritchie?\u00a0 She’s popular in her district but lacks a regional profile that would help her to compete in the sprawling geography of the 21st.<\/p>\n

State Senator Betty Little?\u00a0 She seems very comfortable and satisfied with her influence in Albany, especially given the more productive climate in the state capital.<\/p>\n

Then there are the mayors.\u00a0 Watertown’s Jeff Graham has a great political mind, but he seems happy in his role as a blogger and an occasional gadfly.<\/p>\n

Plattsburgh’s Donald Kasprzak looks on paper like a great Republican challenger, but it would be a high-risk venture indeed for one son of Plattsburgh to go up against another.<\/p>\n

Finally, there’s Doug Hoffman, the Lake Placid accountant who became a tea party icon in 2009 and 2010.\u00a0 Could he return for another swing at Owens?\u00a0 Everyone I talk to — including tea partiers — believes that that moment has passed.<\/p>\n

Which leaves me with just one top-tier name on my back-of-the-napkin list:\u00a0 Queensbury Assemblyman Dan Stec.<\/p>\n

Stec is brand new in regional politics, having just stepped up to the legislature from his role as Queensbury town supervisor, but he’s already well known and popular in much of the eastern side of NY21.<\/p>\n

His politics are what you might call moderately conservative, which seems just about spot-on for this district.\u00a0 And he would almost certainly win a lot of votes in the population-rich Glens Falls area.<\/p>\n

But here again, there are hurdles.<\/p>\n

It’s hard to imagine Stec pivoting immediately and beginning another campaign for higher office.\u00a0 There is a rhythm to politics and for Stec to spend his first term in the Assembly campaigning for the House might not scan well.<\/p>\n

So this is the first nut Republicans will have to crack if they hope to keep Bill Owens scrambling.\u00a0 They need a great candidate and they need one fairly fast.<\/p>\n

The guy (or gal) who wants to bring a serious challenge to Owens will have to start raising (a lot of) money and courting support from county leaders this year — probably in the next six months.<\/p>\n

So here’s my prediction:\u00a0 If the GOP does bring a serious fight to the Democrats in NY21 next year — and I’m not entirely sure they will pull that off — the candidate will be someone new, a business leader or a non-traditional candidate.<\/p>\n

It will be someone in the mold of Owens himself (who was a businessman when he was recruited by the Democrats) or Chris Gibson, the Army officer-turned-congressman who toppled Democrats in the Hudson River valley.<\/p>\n

It will be someone talented enough, fresh enough and interesting enough to raise a ton of cash and keep the race close, hoping that Owens will stumble or the political mood will shift to give the GOP a shot.<\/p>\n

What do you think?\u00a0 Any promising Republicans out there in the region who I’ve overlooked?\u00a0 Anyone you think would make a great challenger to Owens?<\/p>\n

Comments welcome below.<\/p>\n

UPDATE:\u00a0 Chris Morris at the Adirondack Daily Enterprise forwarded to me this twitter exchange from election night 2012, when politics-watchers were already speculating on 2014<\/p>\n

Chris Morris<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0@<\/span><\/span>ADKchris<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n
@wdtpolitics\u00a0@<\/span><\/span>OliverBarie<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Betty Little has the resume, but I think she stays in the state Legislature until she retires.<\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
And a few minutes later, Brian Amaral:<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\n
Brian Amaral<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0@<\/span><\/span>bamaral44<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n
@<\/span><\/span>ADKchris<\/span><\/a>\u00a0@<\/span><\/span>OliverBarie<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Someone’s going to come out of the Saratoga\/Warren\/Washington area.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
And then my response:<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\n
\n
Chris Morris<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0@<\/span><\/span>ADKchris<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n
@<\/span><\/span>OliverBarie<\/span><\/a>\u00a0@wdtpolitics who knows what Dan Stec will do – he’s young enough, and could be ready to make the leap in two years<\/span><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of the most dramatic moments on election night 2012 was Matt Doheny’s rapid and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7304"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7304"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7304\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7305,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7304\/revisions\/7305"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7304"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7304"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.northcountrypublicradio.org\/inbox\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7304"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}