The Kirsten Gillibrand-Sandy Treadwell race was slotted early as one of the biggest congressional contests in the country.<\/p>\n
Gillibrand, a freshman Democrat, won her first term in a Republican-heavy district following a juicy scandal that brought down John Sweeney.<\/p>\n
She immediately began building a huge war chest and is seen as a formidable incumbent.<\/p>\n
(Congressional Quarterly rates the district “Likely Democrat.”)<\/p>\n
But Sandy Treadwell, the Republican from Essex County, has been a fixture in upstate politics for decades — and brought hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money to the campaign.<\/p>\n
So far, the much-touted face-off has produced wall-to-wall campaign ads on TV and radio, but very little actual excitement. <\/p>\n
Media coverage has been tepid, infrequent, and dull. How come?<\/p>\n
1. It’s still unclear how close this race will be. There are a lot more Republicans in the 20th CD than Democrats. With John McCain at the top of the ticket, the formula is in place for a strong GOP challenge. <\/p>\n
But I can’t find a single poll or analysis suggesting that this is actually a tight contest. (If anybody finds any credible numbers out there, please share.)<\/p>\n
2. So far, both sides are playing nice. Treadwell has promised to keep the campaign focused on issues, not mudslinging. Gillibrand hasn’t said much at all about Treadwell. The debates might add a little zing, but they’re scheduled pretty late in the game.<\/p>\n
3. Neither candidate has been particularly colorful (at least so far). Does “clean” politics have to be “dull” politics? <\/p>\n
On balance, you have to say that an under-the-radar campaign benefits the incumbent. It will be interesting to see if the temperature of this race rises as summer gives way to the fall campaign.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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