Okay, here’s my take on the 23rd House race special election, triggered by Rep. John McHugh’s acceptance of the Army Secretary post.<\/p>\n
1. Republicans have found a strong candidate in Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava. She’s well-liked personally in her district and has an appealing, down-to-earth style.<\/p>\n
But Scozzafava has some big chinks in her armor.<\/p>\n
There’s a strong public perception that she’s entangled in the controversy and legal wrangling surrounding her brother’s troubled chain of Hackett’s department stores.<\/p>\n
Also, her support for same-sex marriage rights infuriated many conservative Republicans in this strongly Roman Catholic district.<\/p>\n
2. Which leads us to Doug Hoffman, the accountant from Lake Placid who is now running on the Conservative Party ticket.<\/p>\n
Hoffman is a newcomer but he’s a serious thoughtful candidate who can self-fund a lot of his campaign.<\/p>\n
(He’s hired Sandy Caligiore, the former ORDA press guy, to handle media relations — a smart first step.)<\/p>\n
His biggest liability could be the Conservative Party itself. Chairman Mike Long has taken his rhetorical attacks against Scozzafava to a fever pitch, comparing her to Bernie Madoff.<\/p>\n
That kind of nastiness could easily backfire among North Country voters.<\/p>\n
But unless Hoffman stumbles, I see no reason why he won’t siphon off a big chunk of the district’s conservatives.<\/p>\n
3. Which brings us finally to the Democrats.<\/p>\n
The county chairs have been meeting for weeks struggling to find a holy grail candidate comparable to Scott Murphy, the Glens Falls businessman who won the 20th House district special election in an upset.<\/p>\n
Darrel Aubertine bowed out, making their search that much more difficult.<\/p>\n
They’re expected to announce a pick later today and the pressure is on big time to make the right choice.<\/p>\n
Frankly, given the shifting demographics and voting patterns in the 23rd — and the bitter fight shaping up between Scozzafava and Hoffman — this could be the Democrats’ race to lose.<\/p>\n
If they choose a token candidate, someone who can’t win financial support from Democrats in Washington, chalk this one up as a missed opportunity.<\/p>\n
But if Dems do find a serious horse to run, this shapes up as an epic contest with big national implications.<\/p>\n
Your thoughts?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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