News yesterday that Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava was putting her campaign ‘on hold’ to tend to her ailing father sent a tremor through the North Country’s political landscape.<\/p>\n
Normally, this kind of development would be entirely personal. Obviously, Scozzafava has her priorities straight and is doing the right thing.<\/p>\n
But it also came on a day when the region’s Conservatives (who normally ally closely with Republicans) were sending a dispatch to GOP leaders asking them to dump Scozzafava.<\/p>\n
She faces what appears to be a serious, credible and well-funded challenge from the right, in the form of Conservative Doug Hoffman.<\/p>\n
That’s a lot of variables for a woman who has bucked her party in significant ways, espousing abortion rights and endorsing same-sex marriage as a civil right.<\/p>\n
Throw into the mix a newly minted Democrat from Plattsburgh, Bill Owens, a guy who is clearly more conservative than Scozzafava on key issues, and you get…pure muddle.<\/p>\n
Oh, two more variables: <\/p>\n
1. The timing of this election is completely up in the air, awaiting final confirmation of John McHugh to the Army Secretary post, and the whim of Governor David Paterson.<\/p>\n
2. Also, there’s a big geography factor here. Owens and Hoffman hold an advantage on the eastern side of the district, where Scozzafava is nearly unknown. But in the west, Scozzafava starts with a big name recognition advantage.<\/p>\n
In the days and weeks ahead, this will all come into clearer focus. <\/p>\n
But it’s worth noting that this is one of those districts that a few years ago would have been out of reach for Democrats.<\/p>\n
The fact that Republicans enter the fall so unsettled, and potentially divided, means they’re vulnerable for the first time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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