Word out today that political guru-extaordinaire Charlie Cook is predicting that Democrats could lose as many as 20 seats in next year’s mid-term elections.<\/p>\n
That would still leave them with a comfortable, albeit far less dominant majority. <\/p>\n
(It’s remarkable just how large the Democratic majority is. They currently hold a 78-seat advantage. A dramatic 20-seat shift would still leave Dems with 236 seats to the GOP’s 198.)<\/p>\n
The shifting national mood means the special election in New York’s 23rd House district takes on added importance.<\/p>\n
Republicans desperately need to hold that seat, to prevent themselves from sinking further into the hole. They also need a momentum builder.<\/p>\n
Democrats, on the other hand, are eager for some insurance. <\/p>\n
Picking up a win here in a historically red district would pad their national majority and diminish claims that the pro-Obama\/pro-Democrat zeitgeist of the last four years is turning.<\/p>\n
Look for both parties and their special-interest allies to pile in with resources, talent and money.<\/p>\n
One open question for freshly-christened Democrat Bill Owens will be his ability to garner union support, which could be decisive.<\/p>\n
Also, look for the pressure on Conservatives (and their candidate Doug Hoffman) to mount, as GOP leaders try to clear the field for Dede Scozzafava.<\/p>\n