For Gillibrand-Treadwell, big bucks, little drama

The Kirsten Gillibrand-Sandy Treadwell race was slotted early as one of the biggest congressional contests in the country.

Gillibrand, a freshman Democrat, won her first term in a Republican-heavy district following a juicy scandal that brought down John Sweeney.

She immediately began building a huge war chest and is seen as a formidable incumbent.

(Congressional Quarterly rates the district “Likely Democrat.”)

But Sandy Treadwell, the Republican from Essex County, has been a fixture in upstate politics for decades — and brought hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money to the campaign.

So far, the much-touted face-off has produced wall-to-wall campaign ads on TV and radio, but very little actual excitement.

Media coverage has been tepid, infrequent, and dull. How come?

1. It’s still unclear how close this race will be. There are a lot more Republicans in the 20th CD than Democrats. With John McCain at the top of the ticket, the formula is in place for a strong GOP challenge.

But I can’t find a single poll or analysis suggesting that this is actually a tight contest. (If anybody finds any credible numbers out there, please share.)

2. So far, both sides are playing nice. Treadwell has promised to keep the campaign focused on issues, not mudslinging. Gillibrand hasn’t said much at all about Treadwell. The debates might add a little zing, but they’re scheduled pretty late in the game.

3. Neither candidate has been particularly colorful (at least so far). Does “clean” politics have to be “dull” politics?

On balance, you have to say that an under-the-radar campaign benefits the incumbent. It will be interesting to see if the temperature of this race rises as summer gives way to the fall campaign.