New York’s historic tipping point

Election Day 2008 will be historic on a lot of levels. We’ll see the country’s first African American president sworn into office — or the nation’s first female vice president.

But we could also see tectonic shifts here at home — in New York state and the North Country.

The biggest question that will be answered is control of the state Senate, the last bastion of power for New York’s Republican Party.

The GOP currently holds a one-seat majority: it doesn’t get much slimmer than that. If Republicans lose control in November, it could trigger an upheaval that will echo throughout New York politics.

Here are some possible outcomes:

1. Without a power base in Albany, Republicans will struggle to raise money. That will make a come-back far more difficult.

2. After the 2010 Census, Democrats will control the entire redistricting process. That could mean…

3. A realignment of state Senate boundaries, breaking up “safe” Republican districts like the one held by North Country lawmaker Betty Little. If Democrats redraw the lines, Little could be forced to compete for votes in Democratic strongholds.

4. A realignment of Congressional districts that could lock in Democratic majorities in New York’s 20th Congressional District. Less likely, but possible, would be the break-up of the North Country district (NY 23) long held by Republican John McHugh.

5. If Democrats hold their North Country gains (in the state Senate and Congress), Republicans could see their rural base erode even further. That makes winning ANY statewide office very difficult.

6. If Democrats are in firm control in Albany, look for a new focus on progressive policies that don’t cost taxpayer money, including the legalization of same-sex marriage.