BREAKING: Murphy pulls within 4 points of Tedisco

A new poll released today by Siena College shows big trouble for Republican Jim Tedisco, the veteran Assemblyman and GOP minority leader from Schenectady.

First the momentum question: The first poll released in this contest showed Tedisco up 20 points. That number has now faded to just 4 points, according to Siena.

With two weeks to go, Murphy is now within striking distance. These numbers mean that national Democrats will be pouring in resources as fast as humanly (politically? legally?) possible.

Before moving on to the second tier issues (some of them even more problematic for Tedisco) here’s the Republican’s response:

The campaign has said from the very beginning that this race will be a competitive, hard-fought contest. The facts are that Jim Tedisco has led in every single poll, he continues to lead and he is taking nothing for granted. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the Washington Democrats and their special interest allies have spent millions on false and misleading advertising in a desperate attempt to try to distort Jim’s proven record. Upstate working families won’t be fooled. They know Jim Tedisco and trust his proven record of public service and fighting for them. Wall Street millionaire Scott Murphy has no record of public service, which is why he continues running from his murky past and keeps lying about Jim Tedisco.

Here are some other issues that Team Tedisco has to wrestle with:

1. The Republican’s support among independent voters has faded dramatically, shifting from a 45-31% advantage to a 37-43% deficit. Basically, the more independent voters learn about the two candidates, the more they’re shifting to Murphy.

2. Tedisco’s support in the once staunchly conservative North Country is imploding. In the last Siena poll, Murphy (from Glens Falls) held a 2-point lead. His advantage is now a whopping 25%.

3. Tedisco is only holding 65% of Republicans. A quarter of registered GOP voters say they’ll side with Murphy. Democratic voters are much more locked in, siding with Murphy 72% of the time. (Only 17% of Democrats say they’ll go for Tedisco.)

4. One more problem for Tedisco: In this GOP-heavy district, the two most popular politicians are Democrats: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (78% approval rating) and President Barack Obama (65% approval rating).

5. Eric Sundwall supporters have been eager for news of their candidate the two polls that have mentioned him so far put the Libertarian at 1-4%.

This is still Jim Tedisco’s race to lose, but he has to find some new messages and new lines of attack quickly. Fire away with your comments below.