BREAKING: Murphy takes 4 point lead over Tedisco

Siena Research Institute’s final poll of the special 20th House race was released moments ago and it shows Democratic newcomer Scott Murphy continuing to build steam against Republican veteran Jim Tedisco.

Murphy leads 47-43 percent, having trailed two weeks ago by a 45-41 percent margin, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters. Tedisco’s campaign is viewed by voters as more negative by a 44-25 percent margin, while Murphy’s campaign is seen as more positive.

One ray of sunshine for the Republicans, in an election where the get-out-the-vote-effort will be key: Most of the people polled still thought Tedisco would win.

That kind of pessimism could deflate Murphy’s turnout.

Still, Murphy has reversed a deficit that began with him largely unknown and 20 points behind the Assembly minority leader.

A grim statistic for Tedisco: The lack of bedrock GOP support.

“Murphy has sealed the deal with Democrats, leading 84-11 percent,” said pollster Steve Greneberg, “while Tedisco has the support of less than two-thirds of Republicans, leading 64-27 percent.”

Again a ray of hope for Tedisco — he’s rebuilt support with independent voters and now splits those folks evenly with Murphy.

Here in the North Country, however, Tedisco’s support continues to fade: He’s attracting just 29% of the vote, compared with 58% for Murphy.

Murphy now has higher favorables and lower unfavorables than Tedisco.

One final note of optimism for Tedisco: Libertarian Eric Sundwall was stripped from the ballot this week. Siena found that he was attracting 2% of voters.

Some of those folks might “come home” to Tedisco.

Look for these results to uncork full-scale national activism from both parties and a constellation of activist groups.

More this afternoon on All Before Five. Comment away below…