CQ predicts more Republican struggles next year

Congressional Quarterly has handicapped US Senate races next year and they think Dems have a very good chance of gaining seats yet again.

With the caveat that these ratings will change over the year and a half before the midterm elections, seven of the nine rated No Clear Favorite (or tossup) by CQ Politics are now held by Republicans.

The fact that this is actually an improvement for the GOP over the 2006 and 2008 cycles underscores how bad those years were for that party.

Democrats are poised at the edge of a sixty-seat, filibuster-proof majority, so Republicans are scrambling to pull back from the brink.

But the GOP has five retiring Senators, four of them in states that look highly vulnerable to Democratic challenges: Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Missouri.

The Dems only have one retirement to defend, in Delaware. They could also see vulnerable incumbents in some of the “musical chair” positions created by President Obama’s election.

They includes Kirsten Gillibrand here in New York and Roland Burris in Illinois.

We’ve talked a lot here about the philosophical and policy problems facing the GOP. CQ’s analysis shows that in tactical and ground-game terms, Republicans are also still playing defense.