Specter and the downward spiral

Republicans face a systemic dilemma that in some ways parallels the Democratic conundrum of the mid 1990s.

In those years — thanks in part to Republican redistricting efforts — moderate Democrats were being picked off. The surviving party was smaller and more ideological.

When Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) emerged as the House minority leader, it seemed possible that the Democratic movement would flounder toward the margins.

But Pelosi and Democratic leaders in the Senate somehow resisted the temptation to follow their more purist base.

They chose pragmatists like Rahm Emanuel (in the House) and Chuck Schumer (in the Senate) to lead their rebuilding effort.

Even former Vermont Governor Howard Dean — at first seen as a firebrand — hunkered down and got busy doing the nuts-and-bolts work of erecting a 50-state political movement.

The results were visible here in New York’s 20th congressional district, where first Kirsten Gillibrand and then Scott Murphy laid claim to a seat that had been cozily Republican.

This week’s defection of Senator Arlen Specter from the GOP is more evidence that the conservative movement is trying a different and far more perilous path.

With each passing year, the Republican Party is a smaller and more fervently ideological organization. (Rush Limbaugh describes this as a healthy “winnowing” process.)

It appears that the temptations of purity are simply too great. The GOP could lose as many as 4 additional U.S. Senators in 2010, as moderates are ostracized or weakened by primary challenges. More defections are possible, perhaps likely.

(Limbaugh seems particularly eager to drive Sen. John McCain out of the party.)

Where might the downward spiral end? Ask a Whig. Or a Federalist…