Does war still matter? Maybe not

We spend a lot of time at NCPR talking and thinking about war: Iraq, Afghanistan, the global war on terror.

With Fort Drum on one flank, the Canadian border on another and a lot of citizen soldiers cycling into war zones from small towns across the region, this question — Does war still matter? – may seem absurd.

But the truth is (and this is good news) war has become a relatively minor factor in modern human experience.

According to the latest survey by SIPRI — the global authority on armed conflict — only 25,000 people died in traditional combat situations last year worldwide.

As Slate points out in an on-line article today, “two thirds of these deaths took place in just three war zones: Sri Lanka (8,400), Afghanistan (4,600), and Iraq (4,000).”

Two of those conflicts, in Sri Lanka and Iraq, appear to be over or at least winding down.

In contrast, almost 500,000 people are killed each year in violent crimes and well over 1 million die in automobile accidents.

A separate report produced by the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence concluded that 740,000 people die each year “as a result of the violence associated with armed conflicts and
large- and small-scale criminality.” But they include this caveat:

The majority of these deaths—as many as 490,000—occur outside war zones. This figure shows that war is only one of many forms of armed violence, and in most regions not the most important one.

The Geneva Declaration concludes that deaths from armed conflicts, while “far from negligible” are “remarkably low in comparison to historical levels.”

In short, the real killers globally aren’t raging armies. These days, the enemies of peace are poverty, a lack of safe drinking water, disease, and a shortage of basic health care.

The picture, of course, isn’t entirely rosy. All is not quiet on the war front. Here’s SIPRI’s rather gloomy assessment:

A total of 16 major armed conflicts raged on, with many gathering intensity over the course of 2008. Deliberate violence against civilians by warring parties was increasingly and appallingly common.

There is still a lot to be done in places like Sudan and it seems likely that we’ll be shipping our young men and women to Afghanistan for years to come.

But it’s still worth pausing to take note of a stunning development.

For those of us who grew up in the shadow of World War 2 and the Cold War — with Vietnam on our television screens — it’s startling to think that the world is an increasingly peaceful place.

It also raises a troubling question: If war represents a dwindling force in global affairs, why does war preparation consume so much of the United States’ national budget?

Tags: military