23rd House race unfocused, unpredictable

News yesterday that Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava was putting her campaign ‘on hold’ to tend to her ailing father sent a tremor through the North Country’s political landscape.

Normally, this kind of development would be entirely personal. Obviously, Scozzafava has her priorities straight and is doing the right thing.

But it also came on a day when the region’s Conservatives (who normally ally closely with Republicans) were sending a dispatch to GOP leaders asking them to dump Scozzafava.

She faces what appears to be a serious, credible and well-funded challenge from the right, in the form of Conservative Doug Hoffman.

That’s a lot of variables for a woman who has bucked her party in significant ways, espousing abortion rights and endorsing same-sex marriage as a civil right.

Throw into the mix a newly minted Democrat from Plattsburgh, Bill Owens, a guy who is clearly more conservative than Scozzafava on key issues, and you get…pure muddle.

Oh, two more variables:

1. The timing of this election is completely up in the air, awaiting final confirmation of John McHugh to the Army Secretary post, and the whim of Governor David Paterson.

2. Also, there’s a big geography factor here. Owens and Hoffman hold an advantage on the eastern side of the district, where Scozzafava is nearly unknown. But in the west, Scozzafava starts with a big name recognition advantage.

In the days and weeks ahead, this will all come into clearer focus.

But it’s worth noting that this is one of those districts that a few years ago would have been out of reach for Democrats.

The fact that Republicans enter the fall so unsettled, and potentially divided, means they’re vulnerable for the first time.