Scozzafava holds narrow lead over Owens, Hoffman trails

The first independent poll on the 23rd district House race was released moments ago and Republican Dede Scozzafava maintains a 35-28 lead over Democrat Bill Owens.

Conservative Doug Hoffman, who has hammered Scozzafava relentlessly for being “a liberal” trails both the front runners with 16 points.

Here’s pollster Steven Greenberg’s take:

“This is a wide open race. One in five voters is currently undecided. Add to that the fact that one-third of Scozzafava’s current supporters and one-quarter of Owens’s current supporters say they are not very certain of their choice and that they very well may change their minds between now and Election Day.”

Earlier this morning, the Scozzafava campaign released a statement that seemed to indicate that they were worried about these numbers.

Indeed, it’s increasingly clear that the Republican doesn’t have much chance of locking down the center-right vote early.

That leaves a big opening for Democrats to pick up a win, which the GOP can scarcely afford.

Greenberg says he thinks the winner won’t receive 50%, but will capture the seat with a smaller plurality of the vote.

“Clearly, the presence of a third candidate – Conservative Doug Hoffman – who is attracting the support of 16 percent of voters points to the fact that the winner of the race will likely not win with a majority of the votes cast, but rather a plurality.”

Some geographic notes:

Scozzafava leads Owens 53-23 in Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrencde Counties.

Owens leads in Madison, Oneida and Oswego, with 30 points to Scozzafava’s 20.

In Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton and Hamilton Counties, Owens has a slim advantage, 32 points to 31 for Scozzafava.

Just over a month to election day…comment below.