Scozzafava wins week six — and loses week six

Let me start by noting that after today’s handicapper, I’ll be doing just four more of these Friday summaries.

That gives you a sense for just how short the fuse is on the NY-23 special election. (Maybe also a sense of relief for those of you eager for a reprieve from politics…)

Now to the week’s winners and losers:

Republican Dede Scozzafava…emerges as the measurable winner. She’s up by seven points over Democrat Bill Owens. (35-28%)

In politics, it’s always best to be ahead. (How’s that for a great bromide to take us into the weekend?)

Conservative Doug Hoffman logs in at 16%, nearly twenty points behind Scozzafava.

Scozzafava also went up finally with a first, positive television spot just this morning, one that will help introduce her to more voters outside her west-North Country stronghold.

Finally, I caught Scozzafava’s stump speech in Saranac Lake and she was positive and engaging. She’s not a speech-maker or a barn-burner, but the low-key thing works for her.

She admitted to taking a beating in recent weeks, but declared that “winning is the best revenge.”

So Scozzafava takes the week…but she also loses it in fairly dramatic fashion.

A growing number of polls and pundits are indicating that Conservative Hoffman’s right-of-center challenge is doing her real damage.

As we posted earlier, the Cook Political Report asked bluntly if it’s “too late” for her candidacy and suggests that she needs to “right the ship” fast.

Thanks in large part to Hoffman, Scozzafava has locked down only about half of the Republican vote in the district.

If not for her sizable appeal to independents and Democrats, she’d be in huge trouble.

It’s not clear how she can fix this. No candidate likes to fight a two front war and that’s what she faces in these final weeks.

Now on to the other candidates:

Doug Hoffman…continues to rack up big endorsements from conservative groups in Washington, and from name-brand conservatives like Fred Thompson.

The Club for Growth in Washington has committed to spending $250,000 on TV spots in the next four weeks. That’s a lot of dough.

His 16% showing is pretty strong for a third-party candidate and the Cook Report called him “viable.” He’s definitely in this thing to win.

Bill Owens…had a very strong showing in the “third” part of the district, down in Madison, Oneida and Oswego counties. That could be an important data point.

For a Democrat to be just 7 points down at this point in the race is good news for Owens.

But his biggest win of the week is that he’s stayed largely above the nasty Scozzafava-Hoffman fray.

One caveat here is that Owens, too, hasn’t locked down his base: he’s polling less than half of the Democrats, according to the Siena survey. If he were winning more Democrats, this race might be over.

And that’s a wrap on Week Six. Your thoughts? Share them below.