After the GOP’s boisterous summer, revival or spiral?

The Republican Party has had a lively summer. And they needed to show some signs of life.

What’s unclear is whether or not it’s been a good enough season — the start of a fresh start or a noisy sort of drift.

I was startled this afternoon to see this summary of polls at Pollster.com, which shows the number of Americans who describe themselves as Republicans continuing to slip steadily downward.

Pew puts the GOP’s party-ID currently at 23%. That’s bleak.

Democrats have also slid a little, but they’re still at 33%. A big gap.

President Barack Obama’s approval ratings are nowhere near his honeymoon period highs, but he seems to have stabilized about six weeks ago at about 51-53%.

As Jonathan noted earlier, Congressional Quarterly, is now predicting that Democrats will gain at least a couple of House seats in the 2010 mid-terms.

Republicans, according to CQ, could also be playing defense in the US Senate.

CQ Politics rates two seats now held by Democrats and seven held by Republicans as “Tossups”, or No Clear Favorite.

A lot can happen between now and November 2010. Healthcare reform could pass, or hit the wall.

The economy could keep stuttering upward; or suffer a painful relapse.

But so far, I’m finding it difficult to connect the dots between the GOP’s town hall summer and a new, vote-rich cycle for Republican candidates.

One danger for Republicans could be the conservative echo chamber. Yes, a lot of people have turned up for marches and rallies. And Fox News has sky-high ratings.

But what if those enthusiastic supporters represent a limited (even dwindling?) base, as that party ID number might suggest?

Only about three million people watch Fox News regularly. That’s brilliant for cable TV, but it’s only about 1-2% of the national population.

If the voter appeal doesn’t extend much beyond those rural and exurban white strongholds, a GOP revival will be tough.

(Or it might sort of resemble the current economy: a slight uptick to a fairly bleak plateau.)

These questions are at the heart of the NY-23 race. The special election matters because everyone’s looking to gauge just how the climate and mood of the country will play out at the ballot box.

So what do you think? Are you ready to come home to the GOP? If so, what’s won you over or kept you loyal?

If not, what kind of message could the Republican Party add to their platform that would appeal to you?