Owens wins Week Eight

For the first time in this election Democrat Bill Owens is the front-runner, according to this week’s Siena Research Institute poll.

The Plattsburgh attorney surged in almost every category. Here’s a telling statistic:

Conservative Doug Hoffman is stripping Republican support from Dede Scozzafava, claiming 27% of the GOP vote.

But Owens isn’t doing too shabby among GOP voters either. The Democrat is winning 19% of Republicans.

Still to come, Owens has a high-profile event next week with President Barack Obama.

And the Scozzafava campaign has acknowledged that the Democrat will have more money to spend on TV ads down the stretch. Maybe a lot more.

Meanwhile, Owens is watching Hoffman beat up on Scozzafava relentlessly.

While the Conservative trashes the Republican, Owens can concentrate on positive, feel-good TV spots. As a consequence, voter response to his advertisements is running strong.

Things can change fast in politics, but it’s hard to imagine Bill Owens in a happier position going into these final weeks.

Now to the other candidates:

Dede Scozzafava is in a bind. The good news? She’s only down four points. But that reflects a significant sag in almost every demographic.

Her negatives are up and most voters now say that Owens will outperform her on the important issues, from the economy to Afghanistan.

But Scozzafava has some positives to take away from an otherwise bruising week.

First, the Republican National Committee is reportedly stepping in with a big cash infusion. Better late than never is a terrible political strategy, but still.

Even bigger for Scozzafava is the full-throated endorsement by Newt Gingrich, who urged conservatives to rally behind the Republican Assemblywoman.

“This special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional District could be the first election of the new Republican Revolution, but we need the momentum to get it started.”

And finally to Doug Hoffman:

If this weren’t such a great week for Owens, it would be a win for Hoffman.

This is the week that he escaped the “spoiler” label and became a legitimate contender.

Yes, he’s still ten points down, but no candidate made bigger gains over the last two weeks than Hoffman.

And with 16% of voters still undecided, a passionate turn-out by tea-party style voters could turn this into a shocker.

Hoffman is now leading among independent voters, and he’s leading (albeit narrowly) in the southern chunk of the district that includes Oswego, Oneida and Madison Counties.

What’s more, the Lake Placid accountant has plenty of money for the final push.

These are remarkable accomplishments for a political neophyte, a third-party candidate who has built a national coalition almost overnight.

What do you think? Any predictions for the next couple of weeks? Are you seeing the race differently? Chime in below…