Hoffman leading? Club for Growth thinks so.

The conservative Club for Growth, which has backed Conservative Doug Hoffman with hundreds of thousands of dollars in advertising, says a new poll puts him in the lead.

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided.

The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.

CFG didn’t provide cross tabs or detailed methodology and their survey differs significantly from two other polls — including the independent Siena survey — which put Hoffman behind by a sizable margin.

From the beginning, Hoffman’s backers have seen this race very differently from other pollsters and pundits, arguing that he has a clear path to victory.

Who’s right? We’ll find out a week from tomorrow.