What will Democrats do in NY-23?

There has been a lot of attention lavished on the rift between Conservatives and Republicans in the NY-23 special election, for obvious reasons.

Doug Hoffman has mounted an astonishingly successful insurgency, seriously damaging state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava’s campaign.

But a decisive factor in Tuesday’s vote could be the behavior of rank-and-file Democrats.

We’ve heard from a lot of Dems who, frankly, prefer Scozzafava on the issues.

The Republican is more liberal than Democrat Bill Owens on some social issues, supporting same-sex marriage. She also boasts long ties to organized labor.

A DailyKos poll collected Oct. 19-20 found Scozzafava winning 16% of Democrats.

Another 16% were undecided, with a smaller 8% slice going to Hoffman.

Owens, as of that survey, had attracted 60% of his party’s base.

So what happens in the next week? Does he pick up a big chunk of those undecideds? Do those disenchanted folks sit this race out?

And what happens if Scozzafava’s campaign continues to struggle? Will some Democrats decide that voting for her is a “wasted” vote?

The theme of this race has been “divided Republicans,” with Hoffman and Scozzafava splitting the center-right vote.

But if Owens hits election day with 35-40% of his own party still straying, he may not be able to capitalize.