A Democratic collapse in 2010?

I’m still seeing that web ad several times a day that attacks North Country Rep. Scott Murphy (D-Glens Falls) for voting against the Democratic healthcare reform measure.

The liberal-sponsored ad, which pops up on sites like this one, accuse Murphy of “betrayal” for his No vote.

A big question for the Dems going into 2010 is whether their many, many factions will hold any vestige of the unity and zeal that marked the last two election cycles.

A recent poll by DailyKos suggests not so much.

According to the survey conducted by Research 2000, only 56% of Democratic voters are confident that they’ll vote next year.

Meanwhile, a whopping 81% of Republican voters say they’ll go to the polls.

You can do the math. In an evenly-divided nation, it doesn’t take many fence-sitters to shift the momentum in an election.

A lot of Democrats who got elected in more conservative “purple” districts don’t stand a chance if more than 40% of their voters decide to stay home.

Which is why ads like the one attacking Murphy could play a big role in 2010.

Some progressives seem truly convinced that it will be better for the Democratic Party to shed some of its “blue dog” conservatism.

It’s a similar theory to the one being tested by “purist” Republicans, who think a smaller but more focused GOP is the way to go.

And the truth is that big coalition-style parties are less sexy, less exciting. You don’t hear people at get-out-the-vote rallies chanting “Consensus! Consensus!”

Democratic-leaning voters have always been less disciplined than conservatives. Hispanics and young people in particular trend apathetic in most elections.

The bottom line? If Democrats are still as uninspired next November as they are now, we could see a big shift in Washington…and here in the North Country.

Tags: election10