2010 won’t be like 1994. It will be like 1996.

A lot of pundits are opining that 2010 could be a blow-out for Democrats, leaving their dominant majorities in both houses of Congress in tatters.

They’re wrong. In today’s Washington Post, Howard Kurtz points out that all the hype masks a fundamental reality: Republicans face as many retirements, and as many political problems, as Democrats.

As Chris Matthews put it with a suitably subtle headline: “Time to Panic?” It’s so tempting to go there. Rough environment, Democrats bailing out–it must spell trouble! They’re dropping like flies, as more than one report put it. Except. . . . there have been more Republican retirements so far.

Which means that there’s little or no chance that the GOP will stage a “revolution” comparable to 1994, when Newt Gingrich stormed to power.

In that year, Democrats were retiring in droves, their leadership was in disarray, and they were largely unprepared for the Republican onslaught.

So if 1994 is a bad metaphor for this political climate, is there a better lens for understanding the upcoming political season?

1996.

That’s the year that Republicans — cocky and confident after their big wins in the last cycle — lost eight seats, setting the stage for Gingrich’s departure a couple of years later.

It’s true that the GOP gained Senate seats in 1996, a feat the Democrats won’t match in this mid-season election.

But that still left Republicans with only 55 seats, about the same amount of power that the Dems are likely to have when 2010 is done.

In the end, this election year isn’t about the outsider GOP; it’s about the all-powerful Democrats.

The challenge they face will be very similar to the one faced by Gingrich and his allies: What happens when you dominate Washington and your surging agenda loses some of its luster?

How do you hold majorities, and maintain momentum, over the long haul?

Republicans were largely successful at this bit of political aikido, maintaining power for another decade, until the first big Democratic revival in 2006.

It’s worth noting again that the GOP held power in part by casting off many of the leaders who helped start their revolution. Gingrich went. So did Sen. Trent Lott.

Will Democrats be as nimble and aggressive as the post-1996 Republicans? Will Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid step aside?

Those are the big questions of this election year.

Tags: election10