To retake House, the GOP might need the North Country

The New York Times has a cool interactive map up that charts the early picture of Congressional races nationwide.

The bottom line is that Democrats still look very strong to hold the House after the November 2010 midterms.

They have 172 solidly Democratic seats, plus another 37 likely holds. That puts them just 10 seats shy of the number needed to hold their majority.

Republicans, meanwhile start the season with only 154 solid seats and another 17 likely wins.

Looking at this map, it’s clear that Republicans will need to pick off some seats that are outside their comfort zone, pushing back into New York state and the Northeast.

The Times counts the 20th district held by Glens Falls Democrat Scott Murphy as a “likely” win for the Dems.

The 23rd district held by Plattsburgh Democrat Bill Owens is only “leaning” his way.

Surely these two — who won special election victories when President Obama’s popularity was much higher than it is now — have to be among the most vulnerable.

But both are working hard to establish themselves as centrists; and they’re also building big war chests.

What’s more, there are signs that Republicans and Conservatives could be divided again in the 23rd district.

The GOP has learned that it can’t make mistakes in this part of the country, even in a political cycle when the Dems look more vulnerable.

Republicans will need really strong, well-funded candidates to make a race of it. And they’ll need their grassroots to come out strong.

Whether or not they can unify around a couple of big names here in the North Country could be a bellwether for how the tea party movement and the GOP establishment partner up nationwide.

Tags: election10