In 2010 Senate battle, a rapidly shifting political map

The Republican Party’s biggest hope for gaining real power in 2010 is in the US Senate.

Currently the GOP suffers from a 59-to-41 deficit, though conservative members of the Democratic caucus often defect on key votes.

Republicans need to win additional nine seats to tie.

But even that would likely allow Democrats to control the agenda, with Vice President Joe Biden casting decisive votes.

Can Republicans pick up ten seats — or perhaps come close and then peel off one or two center-right politicians, such as Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson?

Maybe. But it’s a long shot.

The highly respected poll-watching site FiveThirtyEight.com is predicting that the GOP has a better than 50-50 shot at winning seven seats now held by Democrats.

The wrinkle — and the tough-to-read variable — is that the battleground for the Senate is shifting in weird ways.

Seats that were once viewed as iron-clad Democratic strongholds — Illinois and Delaware — now appear to be vulnerable.

Will they go the way of Massachusetts and New Jersey? That seems increasingly likely.

Meanwhile, two solid Republican states — Arizona and Florida — could be vulnerable to Democratic (or independent) takeover because of GOP infighting.

It’s entirely possible that Republicans could score some dramatic wins, but fumble their shot at a majority.

One interesting development is just how dull New York’s Senate contest has turned out to be.

Once viewed as a prime take-over target, Kirsten Gillibrand has voided a serious challenge.

Bottom line? Despite some strong poll numbers, a GOP takeover still looks like a long shot.

But there are six full months of campaigning still to go.