Will Cuomo have coattails?
Siena Research Institute’s new poll gives Democrat Andrew Cuomo commanding leads over all his potential Republican rivals.
It’s basically a 65-22% split at this point, no matter who faces him. There are a lot of months before the election, but these are devastating numbers for the GOP.
If the inevitability factor grows, the big question for Cuomo might not be whether he’ll win but whether he’ll have coattails.
There are a number of state Senate and US House races with big state and national implications — including the contests in NY20, 23, and 24.
Democrats Scott Murphy, Bill Owens, and Mike Arcuri could get a huge boost if Cuomo’s popularity builds a big mid-term voter surge.
The combination of Cuomo’s appeal with the continuing high approval ratings for Barack Obama in New York could make a huge difference.
On the other hand, if Cuomo’s win looks more like a ho-hum coronation, a lot of voters might sit this one out.
One thing’s certain: Democrats have to be happy, looking at these numbers, that they won’t have David Paterson dragging on the ticket in November.
I can’t see this as anything that would draw large numbers of voters to the poles. Unless he has some serious skeletons like our last democratic AG turned Governor he is a shoe in. A slight misty rain on election day might turn away even some of the more hardened supporters.
Brian, what are the president’s approval ratings in NY? Who is taking the measure?
Well I just took a look at Andrew Cuomo’s “New NY Agenda”. His 20% cut to state government is the same number picked by his tea-party backed opponent. He probably has better chance to deliver. It is funny. He correctly lists two of the biggest problems we have in NYS:
1) medicare payments and 2) state worker pension payments.
Yet, in his agenda he doesn’t say what it is he plans to do about either.
You gotta attack the big problems or you are just re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
One area I will agree with Brian on, he is the one guy in a position to lay off state workers, shutter state agencies, cut state worker salaries and benefits, change contracts to cut pension benefits etc. Will he do it, we will have to see. I am glad to see that he is opposed to borrowing money to balance the state budget. That is an insane idea!
I have no doubt Jr. Cuomo could win against any Republican opponent currently on the scene. Name recognition alone (and a poor memory) will count for a good deal of it. But I have very little faith in anyone pushing our legislature to perform responsibly, least of all another NYC career politician. I don’t know who could get some work done, but it sure isn’t Andy.
Hey, I’m a knuckle-headed liberal and I’M not even excited by this guy.
Hey you GOP-ers here’s your shot. Fix our budget and you’re in for a generation.
He will end up borrowing money or he can end up like Patterson, those are the choices.
KHL-Find a GOPer that has the backbone to make the tough choices and force the hard decisions through and yet has the personality to make it seem like he’s doing it FOR us and he might just win. Problem is that guy isn’t anywhere to be found. The GOP in NY is just like the Democrat Party in NY- tax and spend and borrow and bribe and spend and borrow some more, all while blaming the other guy!
the guy thats in now is attempting to make all those cuts and changes everyone talks about, and he is being crucified. coumo may say he plans to fix it all, and most buy it face down because he’s a “coumo”. can’t get anymore high school than this. if there is someone who is obstructing patterson’s attempts only to allow the same from coumo based on his father’s name, should be ousted.
i grew up on long island. lazio is a joke, really. he’s trouble. he’s a phoney in my experience.
coumo may or may not have coat-tails, but what bothers me is for sure he’s riding on his dad’s. he may become a popular governour, but he will not be the state’s salvation. there is little doubt in my mind whether he has the clout to ramrod any of his agenda through though.
Brian,
Look at the research on the “coattails effect” and you’ll discover that it’s largely a myth. The weakening of party attachments and declining party competition are responsible weaken the effect. If Cuomo runs this far in front of the GOP candidate in October/November, competition will be next to nothing, turnout will suffer and thus, the “coattails” will disappear.
If my memory is correct, the turnout (depending on how it’s calculated it’ll be different) was 37 % [voting eligible population]. Pretty disappointing for a first order election. But then again, NY has a history of disenfranchising voters and is one of only four states beyond the south that must meet ’64 CRA preclearance requirements.
jpm
64 CRA preclearance requirements???