Is Doug Hoffman a crusader, a spoiler, or both?
Doug Hoffman finally confirmed unambiguously this week that he’ll mount a third party Conservative challenge if Republican voters reject him in this month’s GOP primary.
“People think that I’m the spoiler because I say that I’m not going to get out of the race,” he said. “But people who get on the Conservative line have to stay on the Conservative line once they take it.”
The decision should come as no surprise. In last year’s special election, Hoffman made it clear that he was running with equal passion against the Democrats and against the Republican establishment.
“”We stood up against two major parties that had a lot of money,” he said, during his concession speech in Saranac Lake. “But we got this far on determination.”
Conservative Party chairman Michael Long echoed that sentiment this week: “Doug Hoffman earned the right to a second shot at this considering the fact that last year he got 46% of the vote on the Conservative line alone.”
But Hoffman’s outsider-crusader narrative is blurred this year by four factors:
The most important is the simple fact that Hoffman lost last year to Democrat Bill Owens.
Deep divisions among conservatives cost Republicans a seat that used to be a GOP birthright. Winning a third-party campaign will be even tougher this year.
Secondly, Hoffman has run a campaign this year that even many of his tea party supporters say privately has been lackluster and disorganized.
(Republican leaders have been more blunt, labeling Hoffman “a loser.”)
There has been little of the national attention that marked last year’s special election. Hoffman lags badly in fundraising and this week UNYTEA leader Mark Barie expressed dismay over Hoffman’s preparation for a first debate with Republican Matt Doheny.
“I’m a little bit disappointed,” Barie said.
Thirdly, in this year’s campaign Republican primary voters — and not county chairman — will pick the candidate who faces Owens.
It was one thing for Hoffman to stay in the race when he was running against the GOP’s “party bosses.”
This year, he’ll have to make the argument that tens of thousands of rank-and-file voters chose the wrong candidate.
Finally, Hoffman’s opponent in this primary, Doheny, is far more conservative than last year’s Republican pick, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava.
That makes it harder for Hoffman to claim that he’s the only viable right-of-center pick.
Obviously, some of this train wreck goes away if Hoffman prevails in the September 14th primary.
But his refusal to accept the primary results has infuriated many of the GOP committee members — hundreds of core activists — around the 23rd district.
Some tell NCPR privately that they’re more comfortable dealing with Democrat Bill Owens than with Doug Hoffman.
While conservatives tear each other apart, Owens is sitting on a huge campaign war chest and he’s been working steadily to shore up support among centrist Democrats and Republicans.
The nationally-respected political analyst Larry Sabato says the 23rd House race is “leaning” toward a Democratic victory in November.
Unless Republicans and Conservatives find a way to sort out this mess soon, that “lean” will become a “topple.”
Tags: election10
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If you are a Republican, Hoffman will be labeled a “spoiler”. Democrats, of course, will be overjoyed with Hoffman running a third party campaign. It’s impossible to argue that third party candidates do not have the right to run for political positions. But, if we want our system to change and become more fair, we need to change the way our two party political system works. Instant runoff voting is the way to go.
I don’t think instant runoffs will solve the problem. What we need in Congress, in the State Assembly and Senate, are Republicans and Democrats who are willing to compromise, who are willing to draw upon the best ideas of each party rather than stick to narrow special interests. The underlying problem is redistricting – Gerrymandering – where districts are drawn by politicians which results in the squiggly districts, dissected communities and people with narrow views are returned again and again to office. Districts should be drawn by population and geography, not by political demographics. Until they are, the general public will suffer and faith in government will continue to decline.
I have no issue with 3rd party candidates running. If Hoffman wants run, have at it. Do I think he’s doing it for the right reasons? No way. But, hey! At least this time we can choose the lesser of 3 evils instead of two. Whoopee.
BTW- Naj makes an outstanding point. We’ve allowed gerrymandering to go unchecked for far too long. It needs to end.
Speaking of gerrymandering, has anyone asked either of the candidates in this district whether they’d support throwing the practice on the scrapheap of history? Just curious what “spin” they’d throw out if asked the question directly in a debate on in a media interview.
A clear Hoffman victory on September 14th will take care of these concerns and may get Sabato’s attention as well.
As a Green, I normally resent use of the word ‘spoiler.’ I think Hoffman has every right to run and try to win on whatever “ideas” he has. I just think he should decide whether he’s a Republican or not. If he is, he should bow out when he loses the primary. If he isn’t, he shouldn’t run in the GOP primary at all and should join the Conservative Party or another party or become an independent.
His whole schtick seems not based on ideas, which are very similar to Doheny’s as most media outlets have pointed, but on personal stuff. The whole blame the GOP establishment routine. The problem he faces if he loses the primary, he will have been rejected not just by the GOP establishment but by both GOP rank and file voters and general election voters too.
If he’s rejected by the ordinary people, then his whole anti-establishment schtick loses whatever credibility it has left.
Right now, he seems more like a hooker who will go with whatever group will give him the time of day rather than someone who wants to institutionalize his ‘insurgency.’
All I hear from Doug Hoffman is the same tired and useless conservative talking points. I can listen to these same mantras intoned by a 19 year old conservative wannabee in the Canton PLain Dealer in his weekly column, ( the paper seems to have no editorial policy ). Cut spending, cut taxes for the wealthy and business so they can create jobs, ( that’s worked so well since the ’03 tax cuts ), downsize wages and benefits to the middle class, cut national health care, privatize government services, gut regulation of any kind, and my personal favorite … criminalize abortion of any kind. That’s my favorite since these are the guys who said they wanted to keep government out of people’s health care decisions. The word clone, springs to mind.
Naj, Explain why IRV would not work.
Dave,
IRV does not eliminate spoilers. Here’s proof:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKCWNNYOOkw
Why even have primaries?
If you lose you run anyway; the whole thing is a waste of time and money if that is the path we take. Frankly I think it shows a character flaw if you are not going to accept the results of the primary than don’t run in the primary, it is like losing and then pitching a hissyfit and refusing to accept the loss.
Like the rumors of Nader being funded by Republicans; I wonder if Hoffman is being funded by the Democrats it is the only explanation I can come up with?
Doheny is not the perfect candidate for me, but he would really have a shot against Owens, but not with Hoffman in the race.
“Like the rumors of Nader being funded by Republicans;”
Rumors started by whom and for what reason?
The Democrats sued to keep Nader and a PA Green Senate candidate off the ballot. Sued them PERSONALLY.
As someone (a Green) who has donated to and worked for Nader, I can tell you Nader only accepts small donations of $100 or less and accepts them only from individuals. I know a few progressive Republicans (apparently they exist) who donated ot his campaign, but for the right reasons. The structure of his fundraising makes such funny business hard to happen and makes it almost irrelevant even if it does.
The difference between Nader and Hoffman is that Nader rejects the corporate parties as being fundamentally and irredeemably corrupt while Hoffman continues to be a part of one of them. Nader’s never ran in a Dem primary, lost, stomped off with his ball and glommed on to another party’s ballot line for a few months. Hoffman seems to view this game as a vehicle for his own ego, rather than any serious ideas.
Nader’s never run in the Democratic Party, get pissed off that he lost and then taken his ball to another party.
A year ago news of the NY 23rd district went around the world as A new face won the race with the peoples vote but lost due to the GOP stupidity in standing by one who killed herself politically with her very liberal moral views by allowing her name to remain on the ballet. GOP in St Lawrence County is responsible for the 3-way race again in the 23rd as is their candidate of last year by advising her friends to vote for a DEM not Doug Hoffman. Eleven chairmen and over 100 committeemen had the opportunity to choose for “We The People” rather than another self serving lawyer funded by his other NY and DC lawyer friends. They failed us.
We need a representative in DC who shares our American values of honesty and integrity. As a successful accountant and businessman, Doug Hoffman is a man we can vote FOR. We do not need another election where our only choice is to go to vote against the worst of the worst.
Bettie B.