Politico: GOP’s path out of political wilderness leads through North Country
Politico has laid out its most-likely-scenario for how Republicans could re-take control of the House of Representatives in November.
Two out of the 25 likely “majority maker” races in the U.S. are right here in the North Country:
The NY-23 seat now held by Rep. Bill Owens (D-Plattsburgh) and the NY-24 seat currently held by Mike Arcuri (D-Utica).
(Arcuri’s district includes Herkimer County and a slice of the North Country around Old Forge.)
Here’s how Politico describes it:
“If the GOP is winning most of these races on election night, a Republican majority will be close at hand. If not, Democrats still have a chance of waking up Nov. 3 with a slim margin in the House.”
Politico is spot on that both of these races will be competitive.
But Owens is currently benefiting hugely from a brutal primary battle between Republican Matt Doheny and Conservative-Republican Doug Hoffman.
With the primary still a week away, the GOP will have to pivot with near-perfect timing to have a real shot at the Democrat.
Arcuri faces a tougher fight against businessman Richard Hanna. But Arcuri is a battle-seasoned incumbent, so that race won’t be a cherry-pick either.
One interesting — and even questionable — wrinkle in this assessment is that Politico thinks that Bill Owens is more vulnerable than Scott Murphy, the Democrat in NY-20 who won a special election for Kirsten Gillibrand’s old seat.
According to the on-line magazine, Republican challenger Chris Gibson will need the momentum of a national GOP “landslide” to push him over the top in that race.
It’s true that Murphy holds a sizable fundraising advantage and has been a capable campaigner, but Gibson is an articulate former Army colonel and also has plenty of cash on hand.
Tags: election10
Who cares if someone is a former Army colonel or former anything else?
By the way, Bill Owens will be in Lake Pleasant tomorrow.
Bill Owens is one of Nancys yes men. Not our congressman. Just look at his pityful track record and follow the money.
What does Drudge say?
My prediction is a Democratic sweep in the North Country.
It might be fun if Hoffman wins the seat and Republicans take control of House. I wonder how many Republicans House members will be “yes men” to the tan man? Of course, that would just be party loyalty – Republican congressmen are never, ever “yes men”.
Once Hoffman dusts Doheny in the primary, it will be curtains for Owens.
Hoffman whips Doheny in the primary then thumps Owens in the general. Next thing for us to do is to remove the corrupt party apparatchiks in the NY Republican hierarchy. County chairs would be a nice start.
The North Country is no longer Republican dominated they are a minority party regardless of registration numbers.
So Mervel the north country is now a Socialist stronghold? I honestly can’t believe that some of you people (Dems) can still look at your party with anything but apprehension. I can see the very young <30 who have no recollection of the cold war and no real connection with WWII not seeing the dangers of Socialism in any of its forms . I can;t believe that if any Dems are successful in Nov they will be voted in by people that just don't think about their choice. Sickening
If the <30 have no idea of the dangers of Socialism, Obama's regime will give them an education.
No Mark I don’t think the NC is a socialist stronghold. I think realistically it is a conservative Democratic stronghold that mainly worries about someone representing the NC well who is not a firebrand on the left or the right. I just don’t think we are ideologues.
Now I could be wrong but in my opinion Owens will clean Hoffman’s clock if Hoffman is the candidate. If Hoffman loses the primary and stays out of the race Doheny has a shot. If Hoffman and Doheny both run, Owens wins for sure.
St. Lawrence County voted for Hillary and for Obama, so I don’t think we can say that this is some sort of conservative stronghold anymore.
St Lawrence Cty has also voted for Shumer (twice) and Kerry and Gore.
Owens seems very capable of winning the NC. Socailism, Mark? Like DHS, No child left behind, prescription drug benefit, child tax credit. Oh ya, thats not socialism because a republican did it.
So how come Owens was such a big Al D’Amato supporter? He made some pretty sizable donations to Senator Pothole in the past. What’s up with that?
That is exactly the reason he does well up here Bret. Owens is in fact a relatively conservative Democrat, the fact that he gave money to a Republican who did a lot for upstate NY helps him, it does not hurt him.
D’Amato was a crook! I couldn’t even vote for D’Amato.
I actually only like corrupt Republicans.