Leading pundit says most North Country House races lean toward Dems
Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight — now a part of the New York Times on-line presence — has finally put up his national forecast for the House races this midterm.
He thinks Republicans have a two-in-three chance of taking control of the House in November, which means (obviously) that if trendlines hold steady Democrats have only a one-in-three chance of maintaining their majority.
According to Silver, Republicans are 97% sure to pick up at least one New York seat, in the Western NY district vacated by scandal-ridden Eric Massa last March.
Mike Arcuri, the Democrat in NY-24 — which includes Old Forge — has a 54% chance of being unseated by Republican businessman Richard Hanna.
From there, however, the GOP’s chances in this region grow more slim, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast models, which include factors ranging from polls to fundraising.
Scott Murphy, the Democrat from Glens Falls, currently has a 72% chance of prevailing over challenger Chris Gibson.
Bill Owens, the Democrat from Plattsburgh, has a 69% chance of winning a full term.
One final note: Silver confirms that Democrats are hard-pressed this fall, and very likely to tumble, but he also acknowledges that the race-by-race trench battle of this campaign will decide the outcome.
“[E]ven if the Republicans are likely to enjoy substantial gains over all, the outcome is hardly so certain in any individual Congressional district.
Although the model regards almost three dozen Democratic incumbents as being underdogs to retain their seats, for instance, it is by a slim margin in almost all cases.”
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Let’s see. Since Silver gives Murphy a 7-in-10 chance of winning, and Owens also, a 7-in-10 chance of winning, then the probably of both losing is 9-in-100. (3-in-10 times 3-in-10).
So, if both win, Mr. Silver could be said to be right 91-times-in-a-hundred.
If both lose, Mr. Silver could be said to be right 9-times-in-a-hundred.
Let’s see what Mr. Silver’s percentage is next Wednesday.
JDM – I hope the math here is offered in jest.
–Brian, NCPR
Nate Silver is a pretty smart guy and has a very good track record.
I still believe it is a long-shot year. There is a lot of fear and anger out there on all sides, lots of apathy on the left and considerable motivation on the right.
If Democrats become motivated the races will fall more their way. The thing that may motivate them is fear. Centrist Republican candidates probably wouldn’t stimulate that fear response; some of the people out there in this election cycle aren’t very centrist.
It will be interesting to see. And scary.
Of course, I hate this horse-race stuff.
Brian:
It is an abstraction, let’s say.
My point is that according to the percentages he gives, the results of both losing are only as I indicated.
He’d better be right if he is going to go out on a limb like that.
Wouldnt you like to know how our pundit differentiates between Murphy’s 72% chance of re-election and Owens’ 69%. What do you suppose makes the difference. If he had said each has about about a 2 in 3 chance of winning that would make more sense.
There are going to be coattails..depends on how big Cuomo wins. If he wins over 60% Arcuri might well hang on. If it is less than 60% he is gone. If Cuomo wins with 51% Hall and others may be history. If he is over 60% he carries them over the finish line!
So NY is in the process of becoming Massachusetts. Is this really a shock? Non-news is my categorization. I hope this makes you sleep better at night Brian.
What has been the recent history of Republican victories in the North Country?
Merv- mostly lackluster RINO candidates that go nowhere.