NY23 now a “pure toss-up”
When Doug Hoffman ended his campaign for the House on Tuesday, it was the kind of break that political parties get in big wave years — the cards just seem to fall your way.
The Democrats had that kind of run in 2006 and 2008 and this cycle it looks like the GOP is catching the updrafts.
Stuart Rothenberg, the widely respected pundit, issued a quick analysis arguing that this gives Matt Doheny a real shot at retaking the seat for the GOP.
This is a break Republicans had hoped for but were never sure they were going to get. For now, the race moves to Pure Toss-Up.
Rothenberg argues that Doheny has the resources to compete with the well-funded incumbent, Democrat Bill Owens, across the sprawling district.
Republican strategists are excited, not just for a unified party, but because they believe Doheny is putting together a credible campaign in an expansive district. He ran ads for a month on broadcast television in three markets that cover most of the congressional district for the primary.
The truth is that in real terms, Hoffman’s decision makes this race far more competitive and far more exciting down the stretch.
Tags: election10
Not sure Rothenberg really knows his stuff up in the North Country. See this, on his revisionist take on Scott Murphy’s win (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/revisionist-history-in-ny-20.html), and this, where he said Scozzafava’s late pullout and endorsement of Owens reduced Owens’ chances (http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/new-york-23-moved-to-toss-up).
Owens is a Democratic “yes” man.
On the other hand, Doheny is a Republican “yes” man.
Geesshhh. What a choice.
If you are better off now than you were a year ago, vote for Owens.
If you aren’t better off now than you were a year ago and believe that we all need to sacrifice a little bit more, vote for Owens.
It’s pretty simple. Vote for Owens or don’t vote.