Siena Poll: Owens leads, Doheny haunted by Hoffman
Siena’s new independent poll shows Democratic Rep. Bill Owens holding a shaky lead over Republican challenger Matt Doheny.
By the most cautious measure, Owens leads Doheny by 5%. But he’s well under the fifty percent margin considered safe for incumbents, running 44-39% ahead of Doheny.
The reason this is so complicated is that it appears that — with three weeks to go — a lot of voters still don’t understand that Doug Hoffman is out of the race.
When voters were asked simply whether they would vote for Owens, Doheny, or Hoffman, the breakdown looked like this:
Owens 42%
Doheny 31%
Hoffman 15%
Obviously that’s a much larger — though still not entirely comfortable — margin for Owens.
I’ve noticed that swaths of the North Country are still peppered with Hoffman signs and banners, so it’s conceivable that a sizable chunk of voters still haven’t heard that Hoffman is out.
When confronted with the news by Siena’s pollsters that Hoffman was out, his supporters split in how they would vote:
47% said they would shift to Doheny
19% said they weren’t sure
16% said they would support Owens
10% said they wouldn’t vote
8% of Hoffman voters said they would still vote for Hoffman
So…clearly Matt Doheny is still haunted by the political ghost of Doug Hoffman.
Owens, meanwhile, appears to be haunted by the hunger for change that is sweeping the country. 45% of voters now say they want something different — compared with just 40% who say the Democrat has earned a second term.
Bottom line? Both of these politicians have a lot of work to do before election day in a race that remains very, very competitive.
Tags: election10
The margin of error is 4%. This isn’t very useful information.
If Doheny loses, I believe it will precisely because of his pro-choice stance.
Therefore, I place the blame on the GOP leadership for not selecting a pro-life Republican candidate.
Also, the nation is hungry for the “political class” to get out of town. Doheny is too much of a machine Republican. He doesn’t across as having convictions on which he will vote. He seems to be able to be influenced by GOP party leadership, which is bad.
What Doheny doesn’t need is for RINOs like Koch endorsing him. He needs conservative endorsement, which he may or may not get.
So much for the commenters here who thought that Hoffman would barely register 5% once he dropped out.
I find it really odd that 16% of Hoffman supporters would rather vote Owens than Doheny. That many people would vote against their interests? For what? Just to spite the GOP?
JDM, your analysis is rather self-serving. You’ve been a consistent supporter of Hoffman, and seem to base all your comments on that fact that the majority has the same opinions as you. Guess what? The majority of Republicans who voted in the primary disagree with you. Why do the voters receive no blame for selecting a pro-life machine Republican?
verplanck:
A very slim majority of Republicans voted for a candidate that was backed by what? 11 out of 13 district Republican machines?
It seems that if Hoffman pulled 47% under those circumstances, then I do represent about 1/2 of the Republican sentiment.
And now, if these poll numbers are to believed, 15% still back Hoffman.
You said, “The majority of Republicans who voted in the primary disagree with you.” Well, yes. 53%-47%.
“Why do the voters receive no blame for selecting a pro-life machine Republican?” Because the GOP leadership found 1 issue that pretty much split the Republican voter 50-50. That is the GOP’s fault.
A majority is a majority. “Close enough” is not an outcome in an election; you should ask Al Gore about that.
Don’t forget, most of the Republicans decided to sit this election out, we’re talking about a very small slice of the electorate. Realistically, we don’t even know what the majority of Republican voters want.
verplanck:
Well, let’s review your first post:
“You’ve been a consistent supporter of Hoffman, and seem to base all your comments on that fact that the majority has the same opinions as you. Guess what? The majority of Republicans who voted in the primary disagree with you.”
You use the word “majority” twice.
You speak as if you know that the “majority” disagrees with me.
Now you say, “Realistically, we don’t even know what the majority of Republican voters want.”
You had better decide what your message is, so that I can better respond to it.
Doheny is another empty blowhard Marty McGillicuddy. Fresh faced but zero substance. He made his way in the investment banking world and shipped jobs out of America. Patriotism of the right wing….
You wonder why we are in the mess were in? Look at Doheny…he’s a poster boy.
The poll is not surprising. I suspect that as many as 5% will vote for Hoffman in November as a matter of conscience or principle. On the other hand, voting for Owen as a second choice is not that much of a stretch either. His military record and NRA support are often things that conservative voters look for in a candidate. Finally, Doheny has a character issue with his two BWI’s. Character counts and he doesn’t have it.
DOUGHeny has NO message! It’s as simple as that…. Bill Owens is REAL….he has done alot since the special election…get real people.
Does Owens have 2 arrests while being on a boat drunk?
Has Owens outsourced jobs abroad while working on Wall St?
Is Owens accepting contributions from NO NAMR foreign sources? (Chamber of Commerce)????
Bill Owens is the only viable candidate hands down that has been delivering to Upstate NY.
Doheny has been trying to distort Owens record and it is not sticking.
Owens is the clear choice. All one need do is examine his voting record since taking office after the spelection.
If this was a news piece this would be a terribly misleading headline. It should read something like”
“Owens and Doheny in a statistical dead heat: (and maybe add if you want) more Hoffman votes could put him over the top”
Brian, Do you really think this is accurate the way you are looking at it?
I’m glad you post these blogs. Because I know whenever one of these polls cpme out, most of the 8 O’Clock Hour is going to be wasted on discussion of this irrelevancy so I know that I can wait until about 8:20a to tune in and won’t miss anything important.
Paul –
It’s not a statistical dead heat. Bill Owens is leading by more than the margin of error, even when you factor out the Doug Hoffman factor.
But the Doug Hoffman factor was — is — very real. His support is still in the double digits.
Suggesting that Matt Doheny trails by only 5% — as some news outlets have done — is far more misleading.
It may be that by election day those Hoffman voters will have “come home” to the Republican…but so far that doesn’t appear to have happened.
–Brian, NCPR
A five point lead where 4 points could be within the error means that most of that “lead” is just statistical noise!
If Hoffman still has double digit support then Owens is in serious trouble. I think the Hoffman supporter types in the booth are going to do the tea party thing and try and vote out the incumbent. They can’t do that by pulling the lever for a guy that is no longer in the race? They are not stupid. I like Bill Owens but I think his time may be up.