My final prediction on the national House race: No one knows.
That basic agnosticism is a step back from my last horse-race column, where I sided with the conventional wisdom that Republicans would take control of the House.
And let me once again lay out a big caveat: I stink at these predictions and others who are much better at them than me think the GOP has a 75-80% lock on a takeover.
So me saying that it’s still a mystery is a distinct outlier. That said, here’s why I think what I think.
1. The polls have really been screwy this year. They’re all over the map. And they factor in a lot of fairly subjective calculations about voter zeal. I think it’s conceivable that Republicans will win really, really big. But I think it’s also possible that Democrats will totter to victory in just enough individual races to retain a majority.
2. When I look at the data of the people making these predictions, I find all kinds of questionable assumptions. I mentioned earlier that Pollster.com gives Matt Doheny an 85% lock on winning the NY-23 race. Really? 85%?
FiveThirtyEight.com, another highly respected poll-watching site, gives Doheny a 67.2% chance of winning. Again, really? I think this race looks pretty competitive, with the most recent poll giving Democrat Bill Owens a 5-point lead.
Back Real Clear Politics’ website, meanwhile, I find that they’re putting the NY-19 race in the “leans Republican” column (and in fact, RCP lumps that race in with its overall Republican “win” category.)
But all the polls this year show the NY-19 race as a statistical tie, with the most recent literally tied. To suggest that that kind of race in New York state leans Republican is a stretch.
3. I think comparisons to 1994 are clumsy and likely wrong-headed. It may well be that some kind a national zeitgeist advantage for the GOP will sweep Democrats aside.
But unlike 1994, the Republican Party is unpopular; and unlike 1994, the Democratic Party is fully mobilized, technically and financially engaged, with some very strong candidates. (In 1994, the Dems were sclerotic and scandal-plagued.)
4. The margin for error for the GOP remains pretty narrow. They need at least 41 seats to gain a razor-thin majority.
Most of the pundits suggest that they’ll top that number, but only by a small amount. Stuart Rothenberg says the GOP will win 45-55 seats. Larry Sabato puts the number at 47 seats. Charlie Cook puts the number at 52. Fivethirtyeight.com puts the number at 51.
Everyone agrees that the first 30-40 seats of that surge are pretty much locked in; after that, it gets a lot more competitive.
The bottom line is that this will be a great year for Republicans. They’ll make big gains in the House, the Senate and in governor’s races.
Will they run the field? If they do, the win could be much, much bigger than 41.
If not, election night could go really, really long as we wait to find out who controls Congress.
Tags: election10
One of the problems the polls might be having (I hope) is that most people now have caller ID and many who do won’t pick up the phone if they don’t recognize the caller – and sometimes even if they do.
Three cheers for caller ID!!! It works better than the do not call list.
In New York, with the hapless Paladino leading a lack-luster charge for governor, there is perhaps less enthusiasm on the part of the GOP than in other parts of the country where the lead races are more encouraging.
Can one draw the conclusion from your uneasiness at calling it a likely landslide for the GOP that you don’t think there is a anti-Obama sentiment involved in this election?
I think there is.
I don’t know who those two pundits are that you mentioned, but to think it’s going to be close in the House is discounting a lot of discontentment.
I think 70+ seats in the House for the GOP will demonstrate a strong dislike for the direction that Obama is taking this country.
I think that if the new Congress thinks it’s business-as-usual, except a different party is in charge, then there will be another high-turnover in 2012.
I think that there is strong, “we want Obamacare overturned” feeling from the right and middle of both parties.
That’s what I think.
I think the anti-Obama sentiment is very real: about half of the country disapproves of his job performance; about a third of the country does so passionately.
If Republicans do gain 70+ seats, then I think you’re absolutely right: momentum and the mantle will have shifted in a big way.
And that’s very possible. Unlikely, I think, but possible. My guess is that whichever party leads the House, they will do so by a handful of seats, with a nearly 50-50 split
Who has the mandate then?
Brian, NCPR
Blessed gridlock!
Why oh why oh why do I read these horse-race stories! well, at least the election is only days away. I stick with my prediction from many, many months ago that the Republicans will gain seats but not enough to take the House and Senate.
Maybe I just gave the Dems the kiss of death.
Anyway, for the “professional pollsters” to compare this year to 94 is really a stretch. There is far more different about the current political zeitgeist than there is similar to 94.
My next prediction: this is a year that the pollsters have to go back after the election and figure out why they were so wrong.
Maybe they can poll the pollsters to find out how many pollsters think the polls are accurate…
JDM says: “I think that if the new Congress thinks it’s business-as-usual, except a different party is in charge, then there will be another high-turnover in 2012.”
If Republicans gain control of the House and it’s business as usual, I’m willing to bet we will hear nothing, absolutely nothing, from the TEA Party.
there should be no predictions whatsoever. there are those out there who will read a prediction, and if it goes against their candidate, will stay home.
for the same reason, news media should be banned from “calling” races when, for instance, 10 % of the polls have reported.
As longs as we are talking about polls and elections, there are two things I would like to see.
One – could we please, pretty please, close down voting at 7 p.m.? If you can’t find the time to vote between 6 a.m. and 7 p.m., then forgetaboutit! I really hate the fact that I know who won in races out west before you know anything about who won in NY.
Two – I would like to see a change where any registered voter can vote in any primary. Not just Democrats for Democrats and Republicans for Republicans. Let everyone in on the primaries.
“If Republicans gain control of the House and it’s business as usual, I’m willing to bet we will hear nothing, absolutely nothing, from the TEA Party.”
Get used to the idea of losing your bet then.
Keep up the dream, but reality sucks.
I echo Bret’s 5:35p suggestion.
The RNC chair predicts Republicans will take both houses. The DNC chair predicts the Dems will retain them both. You predict you have no clue. Why is bandwidth being wasted on this stuff?
Here’s what I see. The GOP will make gains, the question is how large? Either way, they take the House or don’t, from their viewpoint the strategy of absolutely opposing EVERYTHING Obama proposes, including National Love Your Pet Week, is working. Steady on course for two more years of No, No, and No leading up to 2012.
Not a heartening prospect I have to say.
I can’t wait until Republicans defund NPR and liberal elitists like Brian Mann are looking for work. Really.