BREAKING: Gibson opens big lead over Murphy
Siena Research Institute just released a devastating new poll for the campaign of Rep. Scott Murphy (D-Glens Falls) in NY-20.
The independent pollsters find that Republican challenger Chris Gibson has opened a whopping 9-point lead going into the final week of the race.
Republican Chris Gibson has reversed an early campaign deficit and turned it into a 51-42 percent lead over Democratic Representative Scott Murphy, who is seeking his first re-election, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters released today.
Gibson has become much more known to voters over the last six weeks, with a positive three-to-two favorability rating. Murphy remains known to more voters, however, they are evenly divided between those who view him favorably and those who view him unfavorably.
The fact that Gibson is over the 50% mark in a district with more Republican than Democratic voters registered makes this a very bleak scorecard for Murphy.
Gibson surged across the 20th district since the last Siena poll a month ago, but his biggest gains were here in the North Country.
The Republican jumped from 31% support to a dominant 55% on Murphy’s home turf.
Murphy has an event scheduled in the closing days with former President Bill Clinton.
But Gibson also has strong backing from outside groups, including Karl Rove’s national “American Crossroads” project,” which have promised to pump millions of dollars into the district.
Tags: election10
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Nate Silver’s tea leaves seem to be right after all (from a previous thread).
Must be he is factoring in a sentiment that is hard to lock in on polls.
Going to be interesting on Nov. 2. Freight train’s a comin’!
It is nice to see outsiders like Rove influencing local elections and it will be especially nice to have the interests of big-business, who are responsible for the economic mess, gaining power again. More corporate welfare and redistribution of income from the middle class to the wealthy. Sweet. Just what the North Country needs. Can’t wait.
Bill Clinton will be stumping for Murphy is Saratoga on Monday so spare me the rhetoric
I wish Carl and Rove and all the other carpetbaggers would stay home.
Fortunately, none of these idiots bother with Hamilton County.
Good reason to live here.
Rockydog beat me too it. The whining about “outside influence” and “corporate influence” gets old when the side doing the whining has their own mega stars stumping locally and receiving huge backing from corporate giants.
That being said, I wish they’d all stay home too.
I know you like polls and I can ignore the blog posts about them if I want. However journalistically, I object to the fact that you (and others) take these polls and craft headlines like “a has a big lead over b.” That is not true.
No one has a lead. No one is behind. Because only a few votes have been cast (absentees) and no votes have been counted. This is not like baseball where it’s a race. It’s not a race where you have little victories and losses along the way. You can convince someone on Oct. 12 and then lose them a week later. It’s not concrete. Aside from absentees, an election a snapshot of what people think on Election Day.
The only thing we know from this poll is that 345 likely voters prefer Gibson and 284 likely voters prefer Murphy as of last weekend. Even if these numbers are written in stone, that means Gibson has a lead of 61, which is not big. (I have a math degree with a concentration in statistics so I know very well about stats, numbers and polling… as well as their flaws which is why I don’t genuflect to them nearly as much as you)
At the very least, you should say, “Poll finds a with a big lead over b,” so that readers can it with the huge chunk of sodium chlordie it deserves.
And by the way, the reason I don’t ignore these poll blogs is because unfortunately, people are unduly influenced by them. Sadly, some people want to vote for a winner rather than their values (maybe they don’t have any) so these polls and blogs about them affect the race as much as they reflect it.
Brian (not Brian Mann) says, “I have a math degree with a concentration in statistics”
Hey, Brian. I have a Masters Degree in statistical analysis.
It’s a necessary skill these days to know how to interpret garbage.
Yes, let’s keep corporate giants out of elections – they are just buying political favors. Too bad the Supreme Court made the mistake of giving individual rights to artificial organizations like corporations, allowing them to spend huge sums with no disclosure required. Get ready for more degregulation and corporate socialism and watch the disparity between rich and poor equal 1929 levels as we fall into the next Great Depression led by the Party of No.
Dang man! We’re already in a depression lead by the Hope and Change party! Open your eyes!
Ah sorry dude, you must have a short memory or be in denial. It was the eight years of Bush deregulation that caused the financial crisis. And it was the Bush tax cuts while funding an unnecessary war that wiped out the surplus he inherited – from a Democrat. The financial crisis and recession started well before the Nov 08 election. TARP and the bank bailouts were all started by the Bush administration. The Party of No has opposed all Obama efforts to stimulate the economy. If the Party of No had been in charge we would be in another great depression with unemployment much higher than they are now.
In fairness to the complaints about overemphasis on horse race polls, what else is there to cover? Almost all of the “platform” materials of candidates are composed of pablum and bromides. All the candidates want to bring jobs, cut waste and so forth
ok so that makes 2 former doug hoffman staff members that were dumped in early 2010, and moved on to become prominent members of 2 successful campaigns (christine o’donnell and chris gibson).
mark barie’s comments about the 2010 hoffman staff were dead solid perfect.