Spring election for Canada?

Predictions of another Federal election in Canada have been mounting for weeks. Today’s stories on this all-Canada news website present a smorgasbord of speculation and analytical crystal ball gazing.

Some call a Spring election a certainty. Others, like veteran observer Chantal Hébert, suggest it could still be avoided, or at least postponed.

Reasons for a possible election stack up as accumulating scandals layered between the usual party power plays and inherent instability of minority government.  A useful summary can be read in this column by Dan Lett of the Winnipeg Free Press.

This is the week it may all come to a head: Parliament returns, a budget is presented on Tuesday and allegations the ruling Conservative Party is in contempt of Parliament will be revisited.

Some have suggested Stephen Harper’s recent decision to send fighter jets to Libya conveniently presents the Prime Minister with a mantle of strong leadership is advance of a looming election. Others discount that, saying there was broad support for intervention and there is no serious political disagreement in Canada on that position. The fight – if or when it comes – will center on domestic disagreements and each party’s quest for political advantage.

For political types, this feels like ‘it’. The big card-shuffle, where the game is won, or lost. For ordinary Canadians (who can’t see why this really matters, or how an election would change much) it mostly adds up to another weary shrug.

Tags: canada, federal elections, politics