Republican presidential contest defies its conservative roots
Here’s a startling fact: In a nation where the Republican Party’s brand is shifting toward its rural, conservative, tea-party-Protestant base, the two candidates with the most momentum are northern moderates.
This week, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour bagged his potential presidential bid. That leaves former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney as the odds-on favorites.
Pawlenty is a guy who embraced cap-and-trade as a way to curb greenhouse gas emissions; Romney, famously, helped to create a version of “Obamacare” in his state before Obama arrived on the national stage.
The other possible front-runner, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, has embraced tax cuts as one necessary strategy for balancing budgets.
All these men have deep ties to the Republican Party as it exists in parts of the country that are less fervently conservative, especially on social issues.
They have also been forced to actually govern large and complicated states. That has meant compromises and gray-zone decisions that some core activists will view as impure.
Even the conservative movement’s latest sideshow favorite, Donald Trump, is a New York City socialite, whose positions over the years on most issues — to the extent that they’ve been coherent at all– have been moderate-to-liberal.
These days, of course, all of these candidates are tacking to the right in an effort to secure the party nomination.
They know that for modern Republicans the road to victory leads through the South and the Bible belt and through party committees now dominated by tea partiers and evangelicals.
But they can’t erase their histories, or their long-established political records, and the GOP’s conservative base knows it.
Not surprisingly, the latest ABC-Washington Post poll shows deep dissatisfaction among Republicans with their choices.
What they clearly want is someone more firmly rooted in their movement — more credibly and consistently conservative — who lacks the obvious electability problems of someone like Sarah Palin.
Unless that person emerges, Republicans will probably have to settle for a standard-bearer who isn’t as conservative, as rural or as Southern in culture identity as the party as a whole.
Tags: politics
Huntsman. The only GOPer who can beat Obama.
Donald Trump is about as welcome inside the conservative movement as O’Bama would be at a Son’s of the Confederacy convention.
Or maybe the Republicans will have to settle for a returning Democrat, not nearly liberal to satisfy his base….
It is disappointing. And there are better candidates out there.
No one has cast a vote yet. We’ll see what happens. I’m genuinely suprised there is no serious talk of a primary challenge to Obama.
The republican base seems charmed by the clowns –Trump, Bachman, Palin and now Ron Paul is back in it again to the delight of his 5%of the electorate.
The big-thinkers like David Brooks like the boring centrists (by GOP standards) Pawenty, Daniels, Huntsman (and who in hell is he, would you recognize his picture if I could post it here.)
So, heaven help them, they could wind up with Mitt Romney.
Don’t forget Thune and Rubio. Both better than the current bunch, but I doubt they will run, but maybe. I still think the issue is excitement and charisma which is why people were first attracted to Palin, until they figured out she wasn’t too bright. The issues are kind of important but you need a conservative who excites normal people, not just activists.
Fred,
The GOP winner is always the guy big money gets behind. That ought to be Romney, but he’s so busy running against his own record he looks like a fool. Huntsman is heir and manager of a Utah mining fortune, a popular, centrist former governor, and moderate enough to be Obama’s ambassador to China, which gave him foreign policy credentials.
In other words, he’s Romney without the pandering. And since he’ll jump in late, he’ll look a lot less foolish than anyone out there now. Big money will like that. (And no votes have been cast, but we all know since Citizens United that the real votes are big money contributions–which is happening now, and why Obama is already openly campaigning.) Huntsman’s only issue is whether, like Romney, his Mormon faith will drag him down with fundamentalist GOP primary voters in places like Iowa and South Carolina.
And there’s this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-revealed-a-moderate-republican/2011/04/25/AFPrGfkE_story.html
I was stuck in the garage yesterday, fixing the various items I’ve purchased recently that seem designed to self destruct. I got to listen to that evil talk radio, God only knows what damage it did to my feeble right wing mind. Anyway, the gist of the 6 or 7 hours of mindless babble was exactly the same as the conclusion Brian and most here have come to- nobody on the right, outside of the GOP bosses, is particularly interested in any of the current front runners. We’re all looking for someone with a little fire in the belly, some appeal, some smarts and without a lot of skeletons in their closet. The TP/libetarian/conservative side would really like someone that DOESN’T have 10-30 years of gov’t service and the resultant tarnish that goes with it. Everyone seems to be looking for someone “real”. It’s a tough order.
Actually, I can wait another year or so before I get too excited about this. Between now and then things could get better, or more likely, a lot worse. Let’s see how things look this time next year and worry about it then.
My observation over the past half century is that nominations, of either party, no longer go to someone who comes in “later” They go to someone who is campaigning from day one, wins early andbuilds momentum. See Barry Goldwater and Jimmy Carter as examples of early front runners who the party elders of the day didnt want or think could win.
Goldwater declared his candidacy in Jan of 1964 which was seen as unprecedentedly early…My point is Huntsman may have virtues but he isnt going towin the nomination, I predict, by waiting until those who are front runners now to drop by the wayside.
Huntsman is quietly assembling a campaign even as you write, Fred:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/18/huntsman-team-plans-south-carolina-campaign/
He has to finish his current job in May before he can officially jump in. He has an organization ready.
I’m surprised Ron Paul doesn’t get more attention, given his impressive internet presence and grass roots following, particularly among young republicans and independents. He certainly appeals to the TP sentiments from what I’ve seen/heard.
Last time around Mr Paul failed to reach 10% of the vote in any of the GOP primaries he contested. He has supporters, for sure, just not that many.
Libertarians will never be that large of a voting bloc in the US. Legalizing everything will not sit well with many social conservatives, not spending any government money on much of anything but the most essential services will not sit well with liberals or corporations who both like government largesse for different reasons, and the hawks won’t like their ideas about scaling back our world empire and slashing the military.
News Flash! Obama has produced an alleged Long Form Birth Certificate proving he is an American (in spite of the fact that he is an American because his mother is an American and that makes him a natural citizen) so candidates must now face an Obama with a reinforced Achilles Heel. Kudos to Donald Trump for forcing Obama’s hand, though!
I guess the Republicans will now demand the Birth Certificate with Cherries on Top.
Ben, RP’s problem isn’t his experience or values, it’s how he comes across on TV. The guy is probably a wonderful person and smart as a whip, but he comes across as a little goofy and answers to questions on foreign policy that involve Israel nuking it’s neighbors don’t help that.
Knuck, he should have released it 2 or 3 years back. The damage is done.
This sheds light on the nature of conspiracy theory. Like a virus a good conspiracy theory cannot be stopped right away, because at its core the conspiracy is about faith in the conspiracy itself. So I would bet the release of this Birth Certificate will not satisfy the true believers, the Certificate will be judged a hoax, they will find some strange hidden writing in the certificate to question its authenticity, it will be poured over for the smallest indicators, the source will then be questioned, how far does the conspiracy go that it could produce this birth certificate? Why did they wait so long? How many people were brought in, maybe even murdered (like Vince Foster), to finish producing this hoax of a birth certificate?
I don’t want to give him too much credit but the other take on it was that Obama waited so they could indeed fane the flames a little, let some GOP heavy hitters get caught up in the hysteria of the conspiracy, so now when it comes out they look like nuts.
From CNN today.
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/28/gotta-watch-birthers-here-to-stay/?hpt=C2