In 2012, it’s ho-hum America vs. hotblooded America
First, a simple reality: Democrats in general just got their rear-ends handed to them. And progressives, in particular, got thrown under the bus.
The budget-ceiling vote is a full-throated victory for the Right, and another demonstration of the weakness and disarray of America’s liberals.
Which has all kinds of ramifications for the economic recovery, for fairness in America, and for solving the nation’s long-term budget deficit.
But (and yes, this is a horse-racey sort of essay) it also gives us a first measure of the broad themes that will shape the 2012 elections.
On the one hand, you have the Republican Party staking out clear territory as the passionate party of fundamental change.
The GOP has articulated an unequivocal message: The country has gone to hell in a handbasket and needs swift and even shocking course corrections.
Tea party activists are bold, brazen and unflinching, and for now at least they’re calling the shots.
The danger, for Republicans as we approach the election, is two-fold. First, the things that the tea party wants — deep budget cuts, without any tax increases of any kind — are deeply unpopular among rank-and-file voters.
As those cuts begin to bite, the romance of balanced budgets could give way to real anger, especially among the Social Security bloc of voters.
Secondly, American voters tend to be nervous around radicals. The fact that the GOP’s right wing was apparently willing to court “economic chaos” in order to achieve its goals may give some voters real pause.
(The fact that so many Democrats wound up voting for this deal gives Republicans a lot of political cover, at least for now.)
The dangers for Democrats, meanwhile, are even more profound as the election season heats up. Chief amongst these is the fact that President Barack Obama’s party appears to be positioning itself as the dull, technocrat’s party.
They are the grown-ups, who govern without much in the way of ideology or passion. If they have to sacrifice their program and their principles to keep things on an even keel, that’s what will happen.
As we saw in 2010, that posture can be a prescription for disaster for Democrats.
The GOP’s simple, oft-repeated (and occasionally blatantly false) message trumped Mr. Obama’s more nuanced, complicated (and occasionally dangerously muddled) middle-ground platform.
So this will be the big test going forward. Will Republicans be viewed by the broad swath of voters as committed and principled activists, or as zealots?
Will Democrats be seen by moderate and independent voters as the mature, focused party of common sense governance? Or will they be seen as wishy-washy quislings, with no clear vision for how to take the country and the economy forward?
In the end, the debt-ceiling vote — and the profoundly different ways the two parties handled it — could wind up being more definitive next year than the healthcare debate or the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Tags: politics
The GOP wants Obama to fail and will do anything to make it happen.
You did a report on this story last week.
http://news.yahoo.com/senate-plan-end-faa-shutdown-falls-apart-233254352.html
As long as unemployment is high, the GOP thinks they can win in 2012
Brian,
I think you’re right, but I think the conflict is a lot older than you lay out. Basically, it’s the old Civil War battle lines, south vs. north. A great essay here:
http://www.salon.com/news/tea_parties/index.html?story=/politics/war_room/2011/08/02/lind_tea_party
And look at the chart of Tea Party caucus by region–it’s 63% southern.
And basically, it’s becoming clear that Obama’s constituency is not what people think it is, hence the budget deal. Another good essay on that, here:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/debt-ceiling-deal-the-democrats-take-a-dive-20110801
Liberals are weak because it’s their own fault. Conservatives win because they stand up for conservativism. Liberals lose because they refuse to stand up for liberalism. That’s why I’m a Green. Democratic Party has been taken over by corporate interest and every well-intentioned rank and file member who deplores this state of affairs but votes for, works for or donates money to the party despite this capitulation is complicit.
But what do liberals have to offer once you take any new government spending off the table?
The Deficit may effectively end the relevance of liberals outside of social issues. Sure the parties can argue about how to reduce the deficit, higher taxes, less spending, some combination etc., but those are just treading water trying to stave of disaster, they are not government initiatives to actually do anything.
Education, infrastructure, social spending, health care spending; they now are all about preserving what is already there not any new programs. That is boring.
Not a complete loss for liberals. The committee could lead to defense cuts and revenue increases. If the committee’s recommendations are rejected, then cuts to defense spending will occur, a priority for many liberals.
In truth, the debt reduction doesn’t go nearly far enough. I would say trillions in new revenue are needed over the next ten years and the budget should be balanced within the next five years, at least. Allowing the bush tax cuts to expire, repealing the mortgage interest deduction, repealing ethanol credits, and enacting a carbon tax are all sensible revenue actions.
“The fact that the GOP’s right wing was apparently willing to court “economic chaos” in order to achieve its goals may give some voters real pause.”
Brian, don’t you think that fact that the democrats chose to wait for plans from the GOP (especially senate democratic leaders leading to the deadline) indicate that they to were also willing to court “economic chaos”.
Certainly the fact that half of the lower house democrats voted NO says that they clearly were willing to not just court “economic chaos” but specifically voted for it.
I am not sure that all of the premise of this blog is accurate.
Brian (MOFYC), I agree. No matter how far right this president swings even the more moderate liberals will fall in line and support him come 2012. No matter how bad things get they will always blame the GOP. He knows that and takes advantage of that base. The democrats are masters of the blame game. Imagine if we started to see some of those BUSH MUST GO signs for the current president? People around here who put up those signs were seen as fair minded people. If the right were to do that they would be considered radicals or worse. There is blame all around for dis-functionality in Washington. Yesterday I was watching some comments by a very cool headed democratic representative that was talking about how some on the right have to start acting like adults. It was a classic response considering that he was on this program because they were asking him about a tweet he put up calling the debt deal a “sugar coated satan sandwich”!
Passion is good? Boring is bad?
I guess by Tea Party Republican standards Hitler was a great guy.
Whatever happened to brains? Sorry. I forgot. Education is a waste of money.
If the democrats can drive home the message that the Tea Party agenda embraced by the republicans means the end of medicare and social security as we know them, then the democrats have a chance to come out ok in the next election.
Peter,
The end of medicare and social security as we know them is probably the only thing that will save them in the long run.
Safety nets need to be for people that need them not everyone.
So the liberal message is “lets hold on to the scraps we have now!!”, how does that energize anyone? The party of protecting the status-quo may win some votes if you can scare people enough, but no one will get excited.
Speaking with great effort from down here under the bus, and only speaking for myself, I voted for Obama knowing he was a centrist. I believe my statement at the time was that I would vote for Satan himself rather than allow the Republicans to nominate another Supreme Court Justice. As sick as it makes me feel I will probably do the same thing again in the next election.
Liberals do stand for things but there must be some pragmatic effort to sandbag the dike when the flood and high-tide converge.
I remember the exact moment I knew that the Left had been sold out by Obama. When he could find no space at the table for Howard Dean in his Cabinet. Obama has been selling out the Left regularly since. Still, he has done some good and things could have been far worse–we could have been stuck with McCain and Palin picking Supreme Court Justices.
And who is calling me “ho-hum”? You want hot-blooded, I’ll show you hot-blooded!
Paul – saving medicare by killing it (in the form it is now) is not something that most Americans favor. It is also possible to “save” medicare by a few minor tweaks. Most Americans prefer that solution.
Well we can always pay some amount for medicare. The more fundamental question is that basic health care costs are far to high in the US and fixing that is much more than a minor tweak.
Mervel – True – but the choice is do we close loopholes and end tax breaks for the wealthy, or do we slash medicare. Getting health care costs under control would be a big help too of course.
Peter,
If health care costs remain on the same trajectory they are now, then closing all of the loopholes and raising taxes will not do the job, it won’t solve the problem, it will all be swamped by the massive price of health care in the US. Medicare does not pay enough NOW to cover health care costs.
The US needs to bring in all major medical suppliers starting with the drug companies and on through the chain including medical supply companies and yes even all of these specialists and say, you are not getting paid as much as you make now, not from us and we control this market. I would think we would peg all medicare payments to what Canada or Germany pays for their drugs and health services.
Health care is the modern version of the infamous $600.00 toilet seat that the pentagon paid for from Lockheed.
Mervel – agree – but pushing the cost increases onto retired middle-class seniors isnt really a solution. We need health care systems like Canada or Germany (Actually France has the best supposedly). They all give better care for less money than our system.
I wasn’t saying to push the cost to the seniors.
Right now in the US the Government pays 55% of all health care services in the US. Germany is actually the most like us in that they pay around 75%, but we both have a public and private mix. The difference is that Germany simply tells the health care industry this is the market and this is what you will get paid. The US government already essentially controls health care in the US as the number one funding source for all health care, it simply needs to pay less for the same services.
If you are a drug company you would be in favor of closing the loopholes and raising because that just means you can charge more for the same drug because the government will have more to spend. It is just like the military Industrial complex, the more taxes paid is a good thing for Defense contractors they can simply sell more overpriced useless killing machines, the health care industry will simply raise their prices also to soak up the new revenue from the government who now has more money to spend.
The problem isnt the prices so much as we get lots of unnecessary health care. We dont need price controls in medicine – we need rationing. If it doesnt do any good, we shouldnt get it. If two treatments are equally effective, but one costs ten times the other, we should get the cheaper one. As it is, we get the expensive one every time, and even if we dont really need it.
What we need to do is to stop acting as though the rich are an endangered species needing our protection.
They are the ones who hire illegal aliens to clean their many houses, watch their kids and cut their grass.
They don’t give a darn about public education because they send their kids to private schools.
They moan and groan about how expensive it is to be rich, what with all the accountants, lawyers and security guards they need to hire. They will point to all of their expenses as proof that trickle down economics benefits the “little people.” The little people need to wake up and realize they are the endangered species.
Does it really matter? Both parties are beholden to big business, multi-national corporations, Wall Street, Big Banks, defense corporations, etc. because they pay the re-election bills and offer plumb positions thru the revolving door. Neither party really cares about the middle-class, Republicans are just more obvious about it.
Obama makes Jimmy Carter look like FDR. Outside of one Supreme Court appointment (too early to tell about Kagan) Obama has been worthless. As Bruce Bartlett says, Obama is actually a moderate Republican.
As for the Tea Party, what a bunch of yahoos being led around by the ultra-wealthy Koch brothers and that nitwit Grover Norquist. Can TPs be so stupid to actually believe all the reductions in government expenditures they are so rabid about will only cut programs and services they don’t use or need?
The Republican dominated debt deal will kill more jobs and weaken the economy. Republicans will just blame the Democrats for not cutting government spending more. Democrats will say that’s not fair and bend over. As unemployment increases things will get ugly. A far-right Republican (aren’t they all today?) will be elected in 2012 in reaction to Obama’s failure to deal with the economy. Republicans will also control both houses of congress and SS and Medicare will be severely cut or eliminated. The disparity of wealth will grow even larger. The middle class will move back down the economic scale. The Federal government will be reduced to mainly to the military which will see significant increases. Social unrest will be widespread and the military will be used against US citizens protesting. Right wing paramilitary organizations will have a free hand to take action against immigrants and all others they feel do not support the government. Banana republic here we come.
I’m stocking up on Satan Sandwiches because that’s all I might have to eat in 2013.
myown Beck already said all of that stuff.
Peter, yes we do get health care we don’t need, and that is okay if we are paying for it, it is not okay when the taxpayer is footing the bill.
There is no reason that the US government should pay twice as much for the same products from the same companies as Germany pays or Canada does. It is not about the free market as the free market is already dead in health care in the US; medicare and medicaid already account for the majority of health care purchased in the US the US government is setting the prices just as it does when it buys a B-2 Bomber or an F-22 from a so called “private” company. If we can solve the health care cost/price problems we can solve our deficit problems. Yes not everything can or should be covered and this is rationing, but even with rationing we can’t afford the insane prices that health care is costing today.
Beck?
Mervel – the government pays for the same things that the private insurance pays for. Actually its probably the other way around. If medicare pays for it, the private insurance companies pay also. Medicare pays less, and many physicians complain that they lose money on their medicare patients.
Perhaps the difference is that rational people don’t feel that they should have to be in ‘pitched battle mode’ all the time just to have government run in a thoughtful rational way. I know I don’t but those on the extreme right (and left) make me feel like reason is continually under assault. The problem is how to respond to the hot blooded true believers.
It has been shown that when confronted with contrary facts the passionate believers will continue to cling to their beliefs, if anything they hold them more firmly and insist that those who oppose their beliefs are ‘other’ (commies, atheists, socialists, etc.) as a rational for dismissing ideas that do not coincide with their beliefs. Perhaps reasonable people need to become passionately reasonable? That sounds like an oxymoron to me.
Ouch! Comparing myown to Beck? Hey, hate speech monitor, over here! Look up 4 comments.
Sure Beck just changes the players around a little but his predicted outcome for the country and what is going to happen mirrors what myown was saying. Social unrest, economic collapse, the military (black helicopters) being used against the civilians. Beck just says the Left will do this MYown says the right will be doing it, but both say the same thing as far as what will happen in the US.
Peter right, they all claim that medicare does not pay enough to cover their costs, hospitals, nursing homes, doctors, drug companies, etc, they all claim that. I am not saying it is false, but it points to the basic problem the costs are too high in the US.
The fact is to restructure our costs of health care in the US they ALL are going to make less that is the future of health care if the government is going to pay for it and I think that they are. People in the health care industry from doctors to nurses to drug company CEO’s need to take a look at what the costs of those services are in places like Germany then adjust what they plan on making for a profit and for a salary. Will they like this? No they will not and that is why we have a very strong health care lobby in the US that will fight any and all cost control initiatives.
But it has to be, we are talking about cutting medicare because we cannot afford it, so if they can’t do it now what are they going to do when medicare is reduced even more?
“Paul – saving medicare by killing it (in the form it is now) is not something that most Americans favor.”
I made no such suggestion, but like the debt commission said there needs to be more than just a few “tweaks”.
“The Republican dominated debt deal will kill more jobs and weaken the economy. Republicans will just blame the Democrats for not cutting government spending more. Democrats will say that’s not fair and bend over. As unemployment increases things will get ugly. A far-right Republican (aren’t they all today?) will be elected in 2012 in reaction to Obama’s failure to deal with the economy. Republicans will also control both houses of congress and SS and Medicare will be severely cut or eliminated. The disparity of wealth will grow even larger. The middle class will move back down the economic scale. The Federal government will be reduced to mainly to the military which will see significant increases. Social unrest will be widespread and the military will be used against US citizens protesting. Right wing paramilitary organizations will have a free hand to take action against immigrants and all others they feel do not support the government. Banana republic here we come.”
myown, the last time I checked the size of government and the related spending has GROWN. Quickly under the last president and very quickly under this president. You make it sound like things are being pulled back???? Like someone said, all this debt deal does is change it from a run to the abyss to a jog.
We could get rid of both medicare and medicaid if only we had the guts to get rid of all of the health insurance companies and switch to a national health care policy that is the same deal for everyone, including all elected officials and everyone who works for the government.
No private health care whatsoever.
Just imagine! Every mom & pop business would have the same health care as the President and the CEO’s of large corporations. That’s what I call an equal playing field.
You mean Glenn Beck? You couldn’t pay me to listen to that deranged rodeo clown. Beck’s scenario is laughable – that the progressive liberal left is going to impose martial law. I can’t see Bernie Sanders or Gillibrand voting for that. On the other hand there are any number of right wing Republican thug Governors and Senators that would.
The discussion here is correct – the issue is medical COSTS – not who pays for it. And one way to help start lowering costs is to eliminate the 17-20% that goes to private insurance companies. Single payer, national health insurance is the answer. Then we can start negotiating with drug companies and other providers for reasonable rates, eliminate unnecessary testing, and yes, prioritize and limit some procedures in certain situations.
Well myown I was joking a little. But I do think when you start talking about civil unrest and the military taking action against the people, and the collapse of the US into some sort of poverty stricken dictatorship, that is what the far Right says will happen also, Beck has been saying that this would all happen for the past 5 years. (I have to say some of what he said has come to pass which I used to make fun of him for saying it).
The US government could negotiate NOW for cost decreases but it won’t do it. The reason that the Drug companies like Obamacare is that they know they will get paid MORE it is easier to rip off the government than it is to rip off private insurance companies. Unless all of these players in the health care business take a major cut in what they make, none of this will make any difference.
It is the reason that the Liberals have a ho-hum plan, if new government programs and new government spending is off the table, what is left for a liberal to offer?
Mervel you are letting the right define Liberals and Progressives with such a silly statement. There are plenty of plans out there from the Left but no one is listening. Here is a workable budget that reduces the deficit in 10 years:
http://cpc.grijalva.house.gov/index.cfm?sectionid=70§iontree=5,70
So why don’t you give that to your President? This is the most liberal guy you are going to get in the White House if he is not the ticket you might as well pack it up.
Obama is a moderate Republican, not a Liberal.
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2011/07/22/Barack-Obama-The-Democrats-Richard-Nixon.aspx#page1
I’m pushing for Bernie Sanders to challenge Obama. Then we would have some REAL choices.
The bottom line is the libs have controled both houses since 2006 and the budget since 2007. They had a super majority for two years.
What have they fixed?
That answer would be nothing but they also had plenty of help in the form of some RHINOS.
Short of a revolution nothing will change. People refuse to except any cuts when it affects them and it will need to affect almost everyone.
Everyone should pay some taxes if they want a seat at the table.
It’s easy to spend someone elses money and the government is good at that.
I’m ready to carry the Bernie Sanders nominating petitions and my checkbook open. When do we start, myown?
That article
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2011/07/22/Barack-Obama-The-Democrats-Richard-Nixon.aspx#page1
points up what I’ve been saying for a long time, that our political leaders are almost all on the right. All this nonsense about (fill in the politician name of your choice) being a socialist is pure bunk. You can count the real socialists on your fingers, possibly on the fingers of one hand.