Is Team Obama getting lucky for once?

Love him or hate him, few pundits would describe President Barack Obama as lucky.

His administration inherited a massive economic slump and also ran smack into a powerful, energized tea party movement.

His first term has also been snared in huge foreign policy challenges, ranging from political transformation in the Middle East to the slow wind-down of two major wars.

Even the President’s signature accomplishments — healthcare reform and changes to the rules governing Wall Street – were won by razor-thin margins, earning him more critics than fans.

But as we prepare to crack open the 2012 election year, there are signs that the White House’s bum luck may be turning.

First, there is growing evidence that the Republican Party could blow an opportunity to limit Mr. Obama to a single turn.

It’s not a done deal yet, but this GOP primary is shaping up to be the worst political warm-up lap for any party since the Democrats crashed and burned in 1968.

The other big development, of course, is jobs.  Three months ago, economists were worried that unemployment could be permanently stuck in the 9% range.

Then through the fall, that number dropped to 8.6% and the latest numbers for November showed more significant improvement in the jobs picture in 43 states.

There is obviously still a lot that can go wrong and Mr. Obama’s approval ratings remain, to be kind, fragile.

But the latest CNN survey showed that more Americans approve of the President’s performance (49%) than disapprove (48%).  That’s a huge swing from his dismal numbers last summer.

And there are signs that the current battle over payroll taxes could be benefiting the administration far more than the Republicans in congress.

It may seem a little unfair to credit these developments to luck.

So I’ll note in passing that there’s a reasonable debate to be had over how much Mr. Obama’s efforts have actually helped the economy, or improved the Democratic Party’s appeal.

But it is, undeniably, darned lucky timing.

The President’s political fortunes could rest on the fact that these employment gains are happening now, with the potential to sap the GOP’s chief attack narrative in 2012.

Tags: analysis, election12, politics