Election end times? Or just another presidential election?
I’ve been covering American politics in a back-yard, my-own-little-window-on-the-world sort of way for more than twenty years.
And I can’t say that I’ve ever seen the kind of messages from top tier candidates that we’re hearing from Iowa in advance of this week’s caucuses.
The Washington Post reports this morning on the remarkably dire message that’s buoyed the candidacy of Ron Paul.
[H]e outlines a view of the world so bleak it would make Chicken Little sound like an optimist. There will be a total collapse of the economy. An eruption of violence in the streets. Martial law is just around the corner.
Paul says he would like to cut $1 trillion out of the budget. “People say that means everybody will suffer,” he adds. Some probably will, he concedes, but “they should have to suffer.”
Mitt Romney, meanwhile, talks about President Barack Obama as a proto-socialist, whose ideas and policies “would poison the very spirit of America that allows us to be one nation under God.”
I’m skeptical about the factual basis for these claims:
There is no indication that American society is about to descend into chaos, nor that Mr. Obama is anything more than a center-left Democrat, in a tradition that has been an established part of American politics since at least the 1930s.
But this stuff is resonating big time, at least among GOP primary voters.
In past years, this kind of gloomy, edge-of-a-cliff rhetoric would have been the stuff of fringe candidates, the Pat Buchanans, the Pat Robertsons and the Ralph Naders.
But not since 1964, and Barry Goldwater, has a Republican candidate won the nomination on a hell-in-a-handbasket style platform.
The question, really, is whether this kind of stuff will resonate with a general election crowd, as well as among more hard core conservative voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Or whether the winning nominee will be able to pivot to a more upbeat “morning in America” style message.
What do you think? Have Romney and Paul captured the American zeitgeist? Do you think this political contest falls in a crucible of history — or is this just another election year?
Tags: election12, politics
I can’t wait for this election to be over if only so the In Box can revert to focusing primarily on regional issues (the main reason I came to like both this blog and NCPR in the first place and what you’re far better and more useful at doing). This sort of stuff is tolerable once in a while but my God, it’s well past OVERKILL my friend.
It will be over before you know it. Just a little over ten months.
After that, we can start focusing on the 2014 elections.
The most recent poll I could find (May, 2011) http://www.ask.com/wiki/Barack_Obama_citizenship_conspiracy_theories#Opinion_surveys, said that that 23% of self-identified Republicans believe Obama was definitely or probably born in another country. This is symptomatic of the many ways in which many Republicans, and almost no Democrats, simply reject reality when it displeases them.
There needs to be a word for people who can carry on their daily lives in a reasonably responsible manner, yet are totally, and inexcusably, detached from verifiable reality.
Instead of focusing on the candidates and the horserace, I wish the media would concentrate on why such a large percentage of the population have so taken leave of their senses. Seriously.
That is the real story here.
It is always amazing how divorced from reality many Americans are (maybe humans), and how gullible and easily exploited we are. But these times seems unusually wacky.
I sometimes, seriously think we are on the precipice. Global climate change, peak oil, and corporate citizenship surely must add up to a downfall, but this has nothing to do with the current president. The current crop of illusionists, mystics, and superstitious nutters that the republicans have mustered can only indicate that the thoughtful voters from all parties will ultimately elect Obama to a second term.
The Republican/Capitalist plan only worked in a world where there were Indians to rob, and third world nations to exploit. In a world where we’ve gone global, and where we strive to level the playing field, we’re going to have to utilize a less aggressive system.
Peter, it’s not so amazing considering that there is a whole, very slick network hammering away day and night on the unreality “news” of the day.
And Mike, re-electing Obama is only half the battle. If we don’t come up with a majority in the House and 60 votes in the Senate, the troglodytes will keep us tied up in knots for at least another two years.
Most polls today are partial frauds, funded to make various political points and reflecting various biases, which are amazingly easy to do depending on the phrasing of the questions etc. Left leaning polls would like to paint the average conservative as a kook and right leaning polls would like to ask questions in such a way to paint liberals as people who despise the USA etc. etc. I would not put much faith in any polls this year about what the American people believe one way or the other.
But I think Brian has made the case for Romney.
Brian, if you’re interested in covering the back yard, how about looking into whether Ron Paul is doing anything in our area and the rest of NY that’s described in this blog post:
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/01/ron-pauls-long-game.html
Money quote: “Paul is following the roadmap set by Barack Obama’s 2008 strategy: Start early, learn the rules, and use superior organization and devoted young supporters to dominate the arcane but crucial party procedures in states your rivals are ignoring…”
Is this happening here? Is Paul going after Hoffman supporters, for example? Would be something interesting and original to find out.
I think the ridiculouness we sometimes see will subside, but there are certainly pockets of extreme fervor the rhetoric speaks to, and plenty to go around. I don’t see much difference in Paul’s campaign in 08 short of better exposure, but many of his positions are very popular with liberals too, myself included,so I think he has an added hype in that independent, anti-establishment way. There is enough frustration and concern around so that this style of campaigning seems validated, but I think as we get closer to the election it will tone down and it will be clear Obama will be reelected. I think.
Before the GOP candidates ever made some of these comments gun sales last fall were at an all time high. These candidates are playing on those fears but I’m not sure it’s correct to blame them for starting those fears.
I couldn’t agree more with Brian’s (MOFYC not NCPR) opening comment. Normally when I see these political topics I just pass over the web site.
“Do you think this political contest falls in a crucible of history — or is this just another election year?”
It is an unfortunate election. There have probably been others where the incumbent president is so inept and yet has oodles of money to sway public opinion.
It will be nasty because of that.
If the GOP candidate list is less than ideal, it’s because of this reality.
Who wants to stand before $1billion in nasty-gram ads?
It’s time to hold our nose, and let the jousting begin.
I only wish that if Romney. or Paul, or even Santorum, comes out on top by a couple of percentage points, it is not called a “victory”. Unless one of them really exceeds expectations, it will just be statistical 3-way tie + a couple dozen crabby old Iowans changing who they hate least.
Ditto the rest of them. If Bachman, for example, doubled her expectations and got something like 20%, that would be a story. Otherwise, it’s just candidates spinning and horserace-fixated media stuck in the same old rut.
Someone once said, “Perhaps our current unease is caused by a long dark shadow being cast backward by the future.” There may be a real crisis out there. It seems like we have one every 80 years (American Revolution, Civil War, Great Depression), so we are probably about due. It certainly won’t be the end of the world. The craziness sure doesn’t help, and the more of us that resist buying in to that stuff, the better off we will weather any storm. One concern is that there are elements that are perfectly capable of taking us ALL off the cliff.
We see lots of doom and gloom from all sides these days.
As the economy is collapsing as Ron Paul says we will also be drowning in the rising sea!!
Al Gore is the king of doom and gloom!
Maybe they are both right?
“There have probably been others where the incumbent president is so inept and yet has oodles of money to sway public opinion.”
Indeed. 2004 and 1972 spring immediately to mind with additional factor in common of a president running riot over the Constitution, just like this one.
Both elections were pretty nasty, as JDM suggested.
JDM: the problem is that the only real alternatives to the corporatist, militarist, anti-civil liberties president, assuming Ron Paul doesn’t get the GOP nomination, will be smaller party candidates that the overwhelming majority (even those who claim to want “change”) won’t even consider.
Paul, I thought a rising sea lifted all boats.
It does if you are in a boat.
Good point! Aren’t many conservatives unconcerned about the boatless?
I’m sorry but I don’t see these times as terrible times.
On the other hand, I do see a lot of people, politicians included suffering from a bad case of the terrible twos.
As to who should be president, it should probably be someone who has the good sense to not want the job.
In the article Brian cites with the Romney quote there is this from an audience member:
“Burns said she doesn’t think Obama doesn’t believe in the “spirit of America,” but she said the president has “his own idea of what America should be” and said she’s scared of a second Obama term.”
With the exception of the fear of a second term part I think that most Obama supporters would have to agree with what this woman says. Many on the far left are probably also afraid of a second term!
Personally I think that Romney has a much better chance of gaining some kind of bipartisan support that is meaningful than the current president has been able to achieve. Once he gets out of this primary quagmire he may be able to do well in a general campaign. I suspect that the DNC will be happy to see this drag on as long as possible. But clearly the country is once again itching for a change in Washington. But Obama has so much campaign money I doubt whether anyone else can pull it off. In the end the guy with the most cash is king.
Paul, I suspect that the change in Washington many people are looking for is for Republicans to stop blocking needed changes. I’m sure you see it differently!
If “Romney has a much better chance of gaining some kind of bipartisan support,” it’s only because Democrats won’t hold the nation hostage to score political points.
“If “Romney has a much better chance of gaining some kind of bipartisan support,” it’s only because Democrats won’t hold the nation hostage to score political points.”
Like most people I just want to see things change. Republicans don’t seem to like this president. At this point I only see only one way to change that.
“Paul, I suspect that the change in Washington many people are looking for is for Republicans to stop blocking needed changes. I’m sure you see it differently!”
Don’t see any need to make the discussion personal. But since you ask, I think that Republicans have blocked some needed changes and they have also prevented some misguided forays by the democrats, they have also failed to prevent a few.
Walker, FYI I voted for this president. You seem satisfied with his record I am not.
Getting back to the post. This is all just primary rhetoric. Don’t get me wrong the challenges are real (especially when it comes to foreign relations) but we have been it so much deeper than this in the past.
Paul, I am not satisfied with what has been accomplished under Obama, but I lay most of the blame for that with Congress. I blame Obama chiefly for not having tried to bring criminal charges against those responsible for the financial meltdown, and for appointing Geithner and Bernanke.
As to Brian’s post, it may be just rhetoric, but it’s really off the deep end. Check out the BBC piece ‘Are the Republican candidates all crazy?’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16386176
My favorite part of these needless horse-race posts is when known liberals are down-rated no matter how they comment. Walker makes a joke and it’s 3 thumbs-downs? (And I’ll play victim here, too. Two neg ratings for sincerely suggesting Brian report on whether Ron Paul has a chance to win New York? What’d I do wrong?)
JDM thumbs-down coming in 3… 2… 1…:)
FWIW, I have never given a thumbs-down to anyone. (or a thumbs-up, for that matter)
Makes you wonder who your critics really are, doesn’t it, oa?
If all they can manage is a thumb down, they aren’t critics.
With the chattering class’ tizzy about Iowa along with their relative silence about NDAA (Obama’s revocation of the 4th Amendment)… I think America might be the only country where the news media is more obsessed with those seeking power than those actually exercising it.
It’s a perfect illustration of Glenn Greenwald’s most incisive Tweet: “”So weird to go into journalism to completely obsess on the horserace of who might get power-& be totally indifferent to what they do with it.”
Paul is taping into many conservatives including myself; knowledge that the military is just one more government agency, with one exception, it kills people and has the power to trample on individual rights.
Most people don’t agree with his Utopian Libertarian view; however the idea that we are in charge of the world and should sacrifice the wealth and health and lives of our middle and lower class to implement this perverted dream; is so obnoxious to so many people we give him some support. He is the ONLY candidate both on the democratic and republican side who has captured this point. I don’t see any leading Democrats including Obama who are on this same page of reducing our empire.
“Makes you wonder who your critics really are, doesn’t it, oa?”
Yes it does, JDM. Yes it does… It must be the treacherous left… Damn them all to hell! You were right all along!
In the words of Paul (the local one, who doesn’t believe in taking America back to the nullification crisis of 1833), back to the post: Does anybody out there know if Paulites are campaigning in the North Country? Would be interesting to know if he can steal some delegates from big-biz NYC from the North Country, no?
All the NY delegates will cast for Romney. I have seen a few R. Paul signs around here. College kids seem to like him.