Exit Jon Huntsman, leaving questions for Mitt Romney
I was an avid watcher of Jon Huntsman’s campaign, not because he embodied current trends in the conservative movement, but because he seemed to think that he could bridge the feverish zeitgeist on the right to a more tempered era in GOP politics.
It was a tough slog and Mr. Huntsman’s concession speech today was no exception.
Speaking with reporters, the former Utah governor — and former Obama administration official — seemed to embrace the right’s claim that Barack Obama is essentially an aberrational president, one who has drifted outside the political mainstream.
He argued that Mr. Obama had pursued a kind of “class warfare for political gain” and insisted that “this is the most important election of our lifetime.”
That’s pretty standard fare for Republicans, though as I’ve argued here before, I think it’s hard to support that kind of rhetoric with facts.
This administration is, obviously, more liberal than most in the GOP would prefer and has pursued policies — the Federal stimulus, the healthcare bill, Wall Street reform — that Republicans want to roll back.
But Mr. Obama has also embraced a fair number Republican ideas, borrowing heavily from Mitt Romney’s Massachusetts healthcare plan, for example, and initially supporting a cap-and-trade carbon program fostered by the GOP.
He also named a number of top Republican and conservative figures, including Mr. Huntsman, to key posts in his cabinet and in the ranks of his administration.
Mr. Obama’s Army Secretary is our former Republican congressman, John McHugh. That hardly smacks of pull-up-the drawbridges partisanship.
Further muddling Mr. Huntsman’s claim — that Mr. Obama is guilty of “corrosive” divisiveness — is the menu of ideas that he himself offered during today’s concession speech.
Mr. Huntsman actually pushed for policies that are, by most political metrics, considerably to the left of Mr. Obama’s.
He called for “financial reforms that would break up too big to fail banks” and said that he would “continue fighting to bring home our brave men and women from Afghanistan and stop nation building overseas…”
Mr. Obama’s many critics on the left would be amazed and overjoyed if the White House embraced those policies.
(And one can only imagine the outrage that would erupt among conservatives. Cries of
As we stumble toward the general election, I suspect that Mitt Romney will face a similar problem to the one that stymied Jon Huntsman. Call it the moderate’s dilemma.
He will have to find ways to embrace the right’s fear and anger toward Mr. Obama. That’s key to turning out the GOP’s base.
But Mr. Romney will have to connect with those passions without abandoning the nuanced ideas, pragmatic compromises, and bipartisan policy positions that have defined his career.
Pulling off this bit of political triangulation may be the key to the 2012 campaign.
POSTSCRIPT: Am I the only one who hates the phoney “humble pie” photographs that news organizations so often use to illustrate these political concession stories?
Daily Beast, Politico, and the Washington Post all chose images that made Mr. Huntsman look sort of flogged, defeated — at the very least downcast.
Watch the video, however, and that portrayal is just malarkey. Mr. Huntsman was upbeat and casual and even appeared to have a sense of humor about the end of his long-shot campaign.
Tags: analysis, election12, politics
Brian – the whole thing is kabuki theater, from the concession speech to the photos. Notice also the wife/daughters consoling expressions in the NYTimes or the Wash Post photos.
Huntsman came to the rational conclusion that he cant win and that Romney is unbeatable at this point.
It’s getting to the point where one might ask, “Is the Republican Party relevant to today’s world?”
We seem to have reached a point where former Republican Presidents could not win the nomination of their party because they are too liberal for what now constitutes its base.
Base is a very good word to describe the Republican base. Their mindset seems to be on a level comparable to the Taliban.
GOP moderates do have a dilemma but it is not trying to figure out how to tape into the fear and anger of the base. Independents will determine this election; how does a moderate GOP candidate differentiate himself from Obama?
To me the problem with these guys with the exception of Ron Paul is that they all seem very willing to re-expand the wars, maybe re-enter Iraq and possibly start a war against Iran; so outside of social issues what do I get from them? Lets see the same basic fiscal policies and more war? At least with Obama I would have some assurance that he is out of Iraq and will be out of Afghanistan and hopefully will not go to war against Iran. That alone is worth a lot.
Brian, The picture thing is as old as photography. Editors choose photos that flatter the politicians they support and ones that portray the ones they oppose in negative ways. Always have, always will.
“This administration is, obviously, more liberal than most in the GOP would prefer…” Well, yeah! Ronald Effing Reagan would be more liberal than most in today’s GOP would prefer, despite the current crop of candidates dropping his name every chance they get, as a number of observers have pointed out recently. (http://www.npr.org/2012/01/15/145271755/will-the-real-ronald-reagan-please-stand-up?ps=cprs )
And speaking of Reagan, can anyone think of a president who pursued “class warfare for political gain” more than him? After all, who invented the “welfare queen” meme?
Can anyone name a Republican President that would pass muster with today’s Republican party? Talk about “drifting outside the political mainstream!”
“Daily Beast, Politico, and the Washington Post all chose images that made Mr. Huntsman look sort of flogged, defeated — at the very least downcast.”
Despite the tone of the speech, he was all of the above and then some.
“Can anyone name a Republican President that would pass muster with today’s Republican party?”
Mitt Romney.
“today’s republican party” is the party of the far right. The republican party of the general election is a very different animal.
No, Paul, I mean a Republican who has ever been elected President.
“The republican party of the general election is a very different animal.” Yes, but can Romney turn out the way-out-there base?
The questions are not for Mitt but for Obama! The latest poll shows Mitt and Obama in a dead heat. What, if anything can Obama do? Mitt in my opinion just has to keep focusing on the last three years.
Great! Now Brian has Gary working the horse race angle.
Knuck: I don’t select the topics. I simply respond to them. I’d much rather see a discussion on “Regional Schools” or “Should Franklin County Take Over the Airport”. I’d like to hear some opinions on these topics. I see a name and I know their political views.
“Yes, but can Romney turn out the way-out-there base?”
Walker, I suspect that he probably will. There is one thing that the way-out-there base and the not-so-way-out-there base agree on; we need a change.
But you never know, they could choose to stay home but they don’t seem like the type given their dislike of the current president. In fact I would guess that Tea Party types could envision Romney as a stepping stone to a more right wing president come 2016.
The latest polls seem to be indicating that folks are falling in line behind Romney. So far Romney’s results in the contests to date point to an almost historic early victory in the primary. That kind of talk doesn’t sell papers and keep the blogs fired up but it is how things are playing out. The media is rooting for and plugging for a horse race but I don’t think it will materialize.
“(And one can only imagine the outrage that would erupt among conservatives. Cries of”
Brian Mann, Cries of what? Don’t keep us hanging???
Cries of “More red meat, please!” :)
–Brian, NCPR
This is one of the polls I was referring to:
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2012/01/mitt-romney-inevitable-nominee-abc-news-poll-/1
The media must hate this kind of thing! This kind of agreement in the GOP is not good for business.
Many stories you read seem to hint at things like this blog that there are rough waters ahead for Romney. Yet the real story seems to be that it appears to be smooth sailing ahead.
I will admit it keeps me reading so why not.
This is a good story on where we really maybe at this point:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/most-in-poll-think-romney-will-clinch-gop-nomination/2012/01/16/gIQAOUxW4P_story.html?hpid=z1
Paul – It’s a really interesting question how rank and file GOP voters will react to Romney once he has secured the Republican nomination.
A lot of Americans appear to want a change. That’s in his favor, with Republican voters and independents.
But so far turnout has been really light in the Republican primary, suggesting that passion on the right might not be as intense as it was in 2010.
Romney also has less wiggle room when it comes to moving toward the middle in the general election than other Republican candidates has enjoyed.
He’s already viewed with such suspicion on the right (remember, he’s still only winning 25-40% support in national polls) that if he attempts to “moderate” his views he could face serious dissent.
Finally, I think it’s an unanswered question how evangelicals will respond to his candidacy. Romney’s Mormon faith is not just viewed as “non-Christian” by some church leaders, but as a kind of deception.
The Mormon church’s aggressive proselytizing has also alienated other Protestant groups.
(I’m not embracing these views, or condoning them, just pointing out that this is an attitude Romney will have to overcome.)
It appears that Romney will be the GOP nominee. But I think “smooth sailing ahead” is unlikely.
–Brian, NCPR
Brian, all of what you say could be true but all of this is speculation at this point. Presently he is in pretty good shape considering. That is really what the story is now, not the “what if’s” you suggest.
The ‘Mormon card’ is only an issue if it become a real issue. Unfortunately it probably will. Even if it doesn’t come up in the public dialog I am sure it will be brought up once the press starts writing about why it has not yet come up. I already see it happening.
Even if he moderates his views there is so much support on the right for ousting the current president that I think getting them out to vote (with enough money spent) won’t be an issue. Maybe not?
As you say, it’s all speculation at this point. And any softness in Romney’s support among hardcore conservatives may well be more than offset by softness among hardcore liberals who think Obama hasn’t done enough.
-Brian, NCPR
Brian, if turnout is so light why does NPR spend so much time interviewing far-right primary voters day after day, state after state? Doesn’t it seem like we are getting a really slanted picture of the American electorate? Where are the stories about the elephant that decided it wasn’t welcome in the room, or went looking for a different room? Let’s hear from the elephant.
Also you have to consider a third party run by Ron Paul. His supporters could probably pull 10-15%, which I think would doom Romney.
Paul’s supporters a much more fired up than the traditional Republican base is fired up about Romney.
i wish we could just fast forward election day and get the whole thing over and done with.
“Paul’s supporters a much more fired up than the traditional Republican base is fired up about Romney.”
Yes, my supporters!
Like I said the base isn’t that “fired” up. But tell me will they vote? Probably. For Obama? Probably not.