Democratic doomsday scenario 2012!
So a while back I ruminated out loud about how Republicans could really blow the 2012 election season.
It was an easy essay to write because, at the moment — and really ever since the 2010 mid-terms — the GOP has been throwing off negative and self-destructive energy the way my beater pick-up truck throws oil.
And the simple truth is that unseating an incumbent president is incredibly tough. This is, as they say, Barack Obama’s election to lose.
Even in the Democrats’ darkest days, right after the GOP swept back to power in the House, I thought estimates of Mr. Obama’s weakness were overblown.
But there are still signs that his re-election is anything but a sure thing. Here’s how the Republicans could still salvage a stunning come-back victory this November.
First, and foremost, the fragile economic recovery that we’re now seeing could wither, or even collapse.
If Europe tumbles into a full-blown economic crisis, or if China wobbles, the US stock market could go domino-style into retreat, banks could tuck tail, and a whole chain of ugly reactions could ensue.
It’s also possible that the jobs growth we’ve seen the last year will stall. As Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum point out, this isn’t exactly the most robust post-recession era in American history.
Political experts generally say that Americans vote in November based on their mood in the summer. So the first “uh-oh” moment for Mr. Obama will come in July, if the country’s budding optimism has wilted.
The second big crisis for the Democrats will signs of be apathy or even full-blown insurrection among liberal-left voters.
Remember, Democrats tend to be younger and less white than Republican voters, and that means they vote with far less discipline. They can also be just as fractious as Republicans.
The 1968 Democratic convention saw a major push-back from left-wing activists. It was so ugly and tumultuous that it contributed mightily to the election of Richard Nixon.
That defeat, coming on the heels of the popular Lyndon Johnson presidency, ushered to power a cadre of conservative politicians — Dick Cheney, Henry Kissinger, George Schulz, George Romney — who have shaped American politics ever since.
A similar left-of-center insurrection in 2000 developed around the third-party candidacy of Ralph Nader, contributing to the election of George W. Bush. The momentum of the Clinton-Gore presidency was brought to a screeching halt.
Finally, and this is key, it’s important to point out that even after his recent run of political good fortune — and even given the bumbling slate of Republican presidential candidates — Mr. Obama has almost no margin for error.
The latest flurry of polls show the president running ahead of Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney nationally by 6-7% points. That’s good, not great. And in key battleground states, he is locked in a statistical tie.
In Pennsylvania, Mr. Obama leads by an insignificant 1%. In Virginia, his advantage is only 6%, according to the most favorable polls. In Arizona, Mr. Romney leads by 5%.
And again, this is after several months of more or less unmitigated political disaster for the GOP, and a strong tailwind for the White House. What happens when Mr. Obama faces a unified, focused conservative movement?
So in summary, here’s how the doomsday scenario shapes up for Democrats in 2012.
The economy slumps a bit, meaning that moderate and independent Americans just run out of patience. Meanwhile, a Democratic base upset over the president’s timid positions on same-sex marriage, climate change, Guantanamo, and immigration reform fails to turn out to vote in big numbers.
Republicans capitalize by choosing a nominee by early summer. Boosted by Super-PAC ad blitzes and lifted by a more moderate message, the GOP’s guy captures Florida, Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Colorado.
The GOP claims the White House and along the way builds just enough momentum to eke out a one-seat majority in the US Senate.
If this happens, it won’t just be a defeat for one president. It will rewrite the history books.
The first black president, the man who triumphed on a promise of hope and change, will be remembered as the guy who bungled the Great Recession and was tossed out on his ear.
For their part, Republicans will have elected a president — any of the four remaining candidates — far more conservative than any we’ve seen before, well to the right of Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush.
Tags: analysis, election12, politics
This smacks of wishful thinking. That penultimate paragraph is very revealing, Brian. Hopefully others will weigh in with more optimistic and positive scenarios. Because that last paragraph truly is a doomsday prediction. Bah! Humbug!!
Such elections are always first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent. This part is not good as his first term has been not awful for most Americans but nowhere near good enough to make him even close to invulnerable.
The one thing in his favor is the opposition. Romney, the only Republican with a serious chance tobeat him, hardly offers a compelling alternative vision (especially since the centerpiece of GOP opposition, “Obamacare,” was modeled upon the Massachussetts version implemented by you know who). Gingrich and Santorum are way too toxic for moderates for them to have a chance against Obama. Paul does offer a compelling alternative vision but that’s exactly what the establishment is afraid of so they’ll block him. The media will blacklist smaller party candidates preventing them from gaining any traction.
In order for this doomsday scenario you offer to occur, not only does Obama have to lose, but someone else has to actually beat him.
I thought the real doomsday was in December, before Christmas, according to the Mayans! It won’t matter who’s elected in November, they won’t make it to office in January!
Kidding aside, the nitty-gritty won’t start untill the GOP picks their candidate, and that person and Obama square off directly.
Hopefully most voters will decide when both candidates are standing side by side, in debate.
Brian –
I agree. If Republicans don’t coalesce around a candidate soonish, and that candidate doesn’t step up his game, I think the president gets his second term.
But it should be a troubling fact for Democrats that despite the really astonishing disarray on the right, the GOP is still within striking range.
I don’t actually think the Republicans need a political messiah. They just need some one who looks sane and centered, and then they’re right back in the game.
So far, conservative voters haven’t been comfortable with that calculus. They’ve held out for something which, in their eyes, looks bigger and more exciting.
We’ll see where that leads….
–Brian, NCPR
Good analysis, both Brians.
I think that the Detroit auto bailout recovery will be a crucial metaphor for the election. Obama saved the industry (in the face of massive opposition and nay-saying), while Romney was willing to let it die, but still backed the bank bailouts.
How ignorant a voter do you have to be not to figure that one out?
I also think killing bin Laden is much larger than it’s given credit for. Mostly for crushing Republican “weak on terrorism/national security points, but also demonstrating toughness and courage, as with the auto bailout.
I’m also inclined to believe (hope) that even in a weaker economy, the tendency would be to discourage voters across the board, but helping Obama. Nobody is crazy for Romney, and the others are too crazy for most voters.
Another challenge for Romney is his tax returns: how does he justify releasing a single year’s return, when his dad released, 12 years worth, with the telling comment that “one year could be just a fluke”? So the obvious question is, what is Mitt hiding?
The other great comparison with Mitt-pere is that dad paid, what, 42%, 44%? something like that, while Mitt, paying 15%, wants taxes lowered still further?
How ignorant a voter do you have to be not to figure that one out?
About like the average American voter.
The first black president …. will be remembered as the guy who bungled the Great Recession and was tossed out on his ear.
I guess we can add “apologized to the Islamic extremists” to the list of failures.
One of the troubling things about voters is their tendency to expect more from politicians than is reasonable or possible. I guess you could attribute it to the instant gratification syndrome.
Brian, you mention “The economy slumps a bit, meaning that moderate and independent Americans just run out of patience. Meanwhile, a Democratic base upset over the president’s timid positions on same-sex marriage, climate change, Guantanamo, and immigration reform fails to turn out to vote in big numbers.”
To a certain extent, this will happen. To the extent it does, it reflex poorly upon the potential voters.
True Pete,
I mean the main that will determine the outcome of this election is the unemployment rate, something that in the short run is now out of Obama’s hands, its like the weather.
The real question just may be who stays home in greater numbers?
“and even given the bumbling slate of Republican presidential candidates”. Once the GOP selects a candidate I think you will see he has many issues that will be used against the president. If one stops defending the man and objectively looks at what was accomplished and what wasn’t accomplished those items will be difficult for him to respond to. I just hope the media doesn’t play it’s usual games.
“The second big crisis for the Democrats will signs of be apathy or even full-blown insurrection among liberal-left voters.”
Brian, you may want to check this sentence.
The president has a very good chance to prevail under what would normally be almost insurmountable odds for an incumbent. I think it is very interesting. You look back at how things played out for Regan at this point any anything is still very possible. The key will be young voter turnout. Without it even McCain and Palin could have beaten Obama and things were much easier for him then.
In a bad economy, the incumbent governors and presidents get blamed whether they have any responsibility for it or not. I would add the potential for the price of gas going through the roof this summer to Brian’s list of doomsday possibilities.
Conspiracy Alert:
The Republicans are controlling the price of gas and causing the price to surge to foil Obama’s re-election.
Would gas at 4.50-5.25 per gallon this summer cause unemployment to increase again; just in time for August?
Mervel, I just don’t know. Maybe the higher price of gas will result in increased sales of cars that get better gas mileage.
It’s hard to judge these things. It could cause fewer day trippers but increase the stay of vacationers. Who knows?
But one thing I know for certain. No President has much of anything to do with the price of oil. If you have a complaint, take it up with the traders who bet on the price of oil.
JDM.
Exactly when and where did Obama “apologize to Islamic extremists”?
After ordered Osama bin Laden’s corpse dumped in the ocean?
Please provide link to source.
IMHO, prime example of conservative shark jumping.
I think JDM is refering to the latest appology given for the military accidentally improperly burning religious texts.
(I think it comes under the heading of knit-picking.)
I think JDM is just making another report from Backwards World.
In Forwards World conservatives raise their children to do the right thing. But they realize that kids make mistakes sometimes. When the children make an honest mistake they are encouraged to own up to the mistake, make an apology and move forward having learned not to make that mistake again. It is a sign of strength of character to admit your mistakes and apologize for them. Their belief system is consistent and they believe the government should act in a similar fashion.
But in Backwards World you never apologize for anything because it is unmanly or something.
To me it looks like we act like the worst kind of bratty kid when we don’t admit our mistakes and apologize. Strong people apologize. Weaklings avoid it.
How’s that apologizing working for you, Mr. President? Respect from our enemies? Strength through weakness?
Nope.
Another seven American military advisers have been injured in Afghanistan as US casualties from protests at troops burning the Koran mount…
It comes on the sixth day of violent protest in Afghanistan …
Two senior US officers, were yesterday shot in the back of the head by an Afghan policeman as they worked at the interior ministry.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2106305/Afghanistan-2-US-troops-killed-Koran-burning-protests-continue.html#ixzz1nWzd7Pkj
And Karzai apologized for the American deaths because it was wrong.
So JDM, you figure that it was Obama’s apology that caused the deaths? Yeah, right.
Obama’s apology added fuel to the fire.
Utterly bogus! How, exactly? Give us the reasoning.
Let’s see. Is there anything we can measure that shows things are now better, after the apology? *silence*
Let’s see. Is there anything we can measure that shows things are now worse, after the apology. 2 dead, 7 injured, and wait, what’s this? Pakastan is now weighing in…
Pakistani protesters ‘hang’ Obama with noose…
http://news.yahoo.com/photos/supporter-human-rights-network-group-wears-mask-u-photo-151025752.html
Well, shazzammm!
The apology has measurable results coming in from a new country!
Strength through weakness is a measurable loser of a strategy, Mr. President.
So a whole country is violently protesting the US and we are spending umpteen billions of dollars to die there, why…….?
These morons want to protest over the accidental burning of some pages of a book, what about if I downloaded the Koran and deleted it?
We need to get out of there and let these people settle their own disputes we have no reason to be there.
I can see the Russians giggling.
And Karzai is an Islamic extremist?
Oh, that’s right> Murcans never apologize no nobody, nohow!
JDM, there’s a logical fallacy, “post hoc ergo propter hoc”. Look it up.
Everybody understands that what is happening isn’t really about some Korans being burned, right? There is a propaganda war going on and there are several sides pushing various agendas.
None of us are taking events at face value, are we?
I am. I think the Afghan people in general have disdain for us, the Koran burning was apologized for by Hillary Clinton, she is taking it seriously.
This is not the first time Muslims have rioted over slights to the Koran or to Allah. Fine that is there right, we don’t have a right to occupy their country; we do have the right to leave them to their own bloody fate.
How many car bombings in Iraq today? Does anyone care? I know I don’t.
khl:
Yeah. That’s a big stretch. Hanging Obama in effigy a couple days after he publicly apologies for his country, which is ashamed of.
However, I will remember to bring that phrase to use next time we discuss man-made global warming!
Perhaps many of you don’t remember the history of Kermit Roosevelt going into Tehran in the 50’s and stirring up a riots in the streets by spreading around a few tens of thousands of dollars and having a democratically elected Iranian leader overthrown, but you can bet that the Iranians and Pakistanis remember. And who have we been putting diplomatic pressure on lately? Oh, Iran and Pakistan.
Hey look!! In the news just this morning—Pakistanis protest Koran burning!!! Who would have guessed?
Really, you CAN fool some of the people all of the time. It works on Madison Avenue, it works on K Street, and it works for the CIA and ISI, Mossad…