Can Democrat Bill Owens win one-on-one in a North Country House race?
Bill Owens may be the luckiest Democrat in the US.
He was propelled to victory in 2009 — in the bedrock Republican NY23 House district — by an astonishing level of disarray among conservatives. Also by Barack Obama’s popularity, which was still soaring.
Republican Dede Scozzafava and Conservative Doug Hoffman beat the crud out of each other, and in the end Scozzafava flipped and endorsed Owens.
Even with all that wind beneath his wings, however, Owens prevailed over Conservative Doug Hoffman by fewer than 3,600 votes.
That was the special election that changed North Country politics.
A year later, in 2010, Conservatives and Republicans again fell into a fratricidal blood bath, with Hoffman going toe-to-toe with Matt Doheny.
It was ugly and protracted. In the end, Doheny and Hoffman split the right-of-center vote. Still, Owens prevailed over Doheny by fewer than 2,000 votes.
This year, the situation is very different. Matt Doheny has come darned close to clearing the field on the right.
Yes, Kellie Green has announced her candidacy, and Doug Hoffman is not absolutely positively ruling out a run.
But the congressional primary this year will take place fairly early — in June — and it appears likely that by that point in the calendar this race will have shaped up into a much more conventional two-candidate contest.
The question, given his narrow margins the last two go-rounds, is whether Owens can hold onto this district in a straight-up, mano a mano campaign.
Weighing against Owens is the fact that this is still a conservative-leaning chunk of political terrain, perhaps even more so after this year’s round of redistricting. And President Obama’s popularity certainly isn’t what it once was.
Also, it’s hard to see this shaping up as a Democratic groundswell year. Seems fairly flat out there all around.
Leaning in Owens favor is the fact that the national GOP appears to be more and more hard-line conservative, with very tough messages coming from the top presidential contenders.
It’s unclear whether the North Country will be comfortable with that political brand.
Republican leader Teresa Sayward’s announcement last week that she’s leaning toward voting for Mr. Obama shows that there are some shifting sands in the region that might favor Owens.
It’s also true that Owens is now a true incumbent congressman. He’s had three years to sink roots, build name recognition, and build a big war chest. He’s also leaned centrist in many of his votes in Washington.
Finally, it’s fair to point out that Owens did survive 2010, which was a Republican landslide year. He’s an experienced campaigner and has proved that he knows how to eke out wins.
Doheny, meanwhile, has embraced the national GOP’s agenda comfortably, echoing concerns about “Obamacare,” supporting the Roman Catholic church’s position on contraception and women’s healthcare, and condemning the Federal stimulus.
Will that narrative work in a district that has skewed more and more “purple”? Can he build momentum in a year when, nationally, Republican turnout has been light? Can he excite the region’s conservative voters without alienating moderates?
A two-man race would offer a much clearer answer to those questions.
But I think it’s clear that Doheny will be a tough opponent for Owens. He comes across as centrist and down-to-earth in his public appearances. He’s a former investment banker, not a social-conservative fire breather.
That chemistry might work just fine for voters in this region.
What’s certain is that this will be one of the most closely watched House races in the country — yet again. Republicans will see this as a crucial place to score a victory. For Democrats hoping to regain a majority, holding the North Country is a must.
Gird yourself for the tsunami of campaign ads.
Tags: analysis, election12, politics
Welcome back Brian.
First a quibble: “That was the special election that changed North Country politics.”
I would argue that the election of Kirsten Gillibrand was the election that changed North Country politics. She showed that it was possible for a Democrat to win up here when nobody else believed it could be done.
The big question still to be answered is how the change in the election district will change the outcome. If Warren, Washington and half of Saratoga Counties are thrown into the mix does it help Owens?
Brian,
Reading the same entrails, I have difficulty foreseeing the closeness that most of the poli-analysts (left, right, center & fringe) predict this year. If contemporary American politics is all about winning the middle third of the electorate (and probably the middle third of the middle third), then the national GOP seems to be throwing the Presidential election away with both hands by dwelling on divisive social issues (with no end in sight). Their only tried-and-true wedge issue, jobs, seems to be heading the wrong direction (for them), at least at this point. And arguments for a return to Republican foreign and economic policy will not withstand the prolonged exposure of a general presidential campaign. Particularly in debates.
If a dispirited GOP conservative base stays home in November, it will neutralize any putative red shift in the North Country electorate, leaving Owens pretty much in the political center of the likely voters. Add to that the power of incumbency and the lack of name recognition for his opponent in the district’s new territory, I just don’t see a horse race shaping up with or without a GOP/Conservative split.
Mind you, I’m not predicting a horse race won’t shape up up here, I’m just saying there does not seem to be sufficient evidence to predict that it will.
I wish the GOP leadership in our district would have left along with Scozzafava.
If Doheny is successful, it will be in large part on the anti-coat tails of Obama and Owens lapdog willingness to sign everything Obama that comes across his desk.
If a business lied to us the way the supporters of Obamacare lied to us, we would never, ever do business with them again.
Bill Owens, what was the true cost of Obamacare? not $987 Billion. Try $1.76 Trillion! CBO just proved every Dem who signed Obamacare to be a liar. We ought not do business them ever again.
http://tinyurl.com/7t64knp
Owens will prevail. Even without a GOP-Conservative split, Doheny will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Sure, Owens can win.
And until the Republicans stop attacking women, I will not vote for a Republican.
I don’t see a dimes worth of difference between the Republicans and the Taliban.
“He comes across as centrist and down-to-earth in his public appearances. He’s a former investment banker, not a social-conservative fire breather.”
Both investment bankers and social-conservative fire breathers have lots of baggage. Doheny is no differernt. His investment banker history will hurt him as well as his sources for campaign money – New York City and Wall-Street investment types. Bill Owens has been across the district and has visited many local communities in depth for almost 4 years. That will serve him well.
…and Brian, Hoffman is totally out of the the picture. He announced his candidacy for Assembly. I for one am relieved. If Hoffman wins he will be under the “control” of Sheldon Silver.
Owens isn’t exactly a leftist or anything, and I don’t always agree with him on everything, but I am very impressed that he is as real, and clear, and attentive as any constituency or constituent could ask for.
Why we would even think of electing an argumentative, or divisive character like Hoffmanis beyond me, and the double talking Doheny leaves me cold.
Matt Doheny is such a flawed candidate with his two convictions for boating while intoxicated. It shows a lack of character and judgment. Why is he being given a pass on this? I am tired of all the controversy, and the intrusion of the national vitriolic politics in our region.
The last thing we simple folk need is a wall street insider trying to run our military installations and our farms.
Listen, I think Doug Hoffman himself is an empty suit, doing nothing more than intoning the standard, empty Tea Party platitudes. He’s been more interested in sucking up to the darlings of the conservative national media than engaging NNY voters. But while Hoffman may have been the wrong person to do it, I don’t think there’s anything inherently wrong with anybody trying to influence the course of their own party. Parties go through these battles periodically; it’s (one of) the way(s) they marginalize smaller parties by co-opting their ideas.
dbw- If so many Midwestern and Southern social conservatives could forgive Newt Gringrich his many ethical peccadillos, are you sure their northern cousins would have a major problem with a guy who got caught a couple of times driving a speedboat drunk? It’s not like he killed anybody, yet.
As long as you claim to believe in the Christian God and subscribe to (not necessarily follow) conservative social orthodoxy, you can pretty much get away with anything with that group.
We need Doug Hoffman to spend millions of his own money on a vanity campaign to help explain how tough rich people have it. Millionaires are way over taxed, and sure Doug might pay a lower tax rate than I do, and Doug might have so much money he never has to work another day of his life, but that doesn’t mean he should pay taxes to the country that made his success possible.
You know that part of the Bible about rich people getting into heaven the same way that a camel can go through the eye of a needle? We need to take that part of the Bible out, and replace it with something that talks about hating gays more. Also we need to take out all the stuff about gluttony. Doug Hoffman 2012!
Bill Owens, what was the true cost of Obamacare? not $987 Billion. Try $1.76 Trillion!
How can anyone possibly ignore this new finding??? Why hasn’t the “main stream media” reported this amazing fact?
I think Doheny is a pretty good candidate compared to some of the past ones we have had.
But Owens will win, he basically fits the North Country, a moderate slightly conservative Democrat, won’t rock any boats, will try to bring home some bacon, not a radical on the left or right.
I think if he wins he could get some favors from the Democratic leadership if the Democrats hold on to at least partial power in Congress which would be good for the Northcountry.
“Bill Owens, what was the true cost of Obamacare? not $987 Billion. Try $1.76 Trillion!”
Actually, not true. At all. http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/03/conservatives-distort-cbo-data-to-claim-obamacare-costs-have-exploded.php?ref=fpa
The Affordable Health Care Act will save the US money in the long run. However, I hope the AHCA is merely a stepping stone to a full single-payer health system. We will get there, sooner or later, and the sooner the better.
Of course it’s not true that the cost of “Obamacare” is going double in cost. But that is what the right wing media are telling people like JDM who become more and more information deficient.
The health care act as it currently stands is an unfunded mandate, it won’t really make any difference until it starts actually paying for health care. I mean where do I go to sign up today for my cheap or free government health care? It does not exist and in my opinion it is like abortion a never ending debate about something that is out of our hands.
Its not going to happen it s a fantasy made for debate alone. Until health care costs in the US radically come down, the government will never be able to afford to provide us with health care, it can barely afford medicaid/medicare right now for the old and the poor.
“Until health care costs in the US radically come down…”
Mervel, single-payer is exactly the mechanism that could drive health care costs down, if we could get it past the well-financed-with-our-health-care-dollars lobbyists.
Maybe, I am not against single payer as long as it really drives the actual costs down. Which means everyone in health care makes less; doctors, nurses, hospitals, Drug companies, all of them. I don’t know if they are ready to allow that? I know that a good portion of the health care industry has a great deal of power over both democrats and republicans. I also think you can’t force people to do things, including buy health insurance. Most people will sign up for decent affordable health care provided by the government, look at medicare, it is very popular across the board. No one is saying, I refuse to get medicare.
But consider we can’t afford medicare, which covers only those above 65, how in the world are we going to pay for the health care of everyone in the US?
20% of the US economy is sucked up right now paying for health care, and we are not a healthy people. Something is very wrong; the first thing that must happen is a reduction in that expense, until that happens this is all just b.s.
I don’t think you can reduce costs first. The primary waste in the system is in the administrative overhead of all those insurance companies with their high-paid executives, and they aren’t going to go away until they have to. Leaches hold tight while they suck your blood!