Road to White House update: Still Obama by a nose
It’s been a tough few weeks for President Barack Obama.
Republican challenger Mitt Romney has closed the poll gap in dramatic fashion, going from an injured primary warrior to a serious general election contender faster than anyone anticipated.
He’s also made fast work of closing the fundraising gap, and with the help from corporations and wealthy donors may actually outspend an incumbent president. Those are huge accomplishments.
Last time I surveyed the political landscape, Obama’s lead looked daunting. That’s changed. His lead is fragile and as we head into the summer, he faces some big questions about electability. But he retains a small but significant lead.
Here’s the picture in early June:
Obama leads substantially in states that would give him 221 electoral college votes, meaning that he needs to find 49 more EC votes to claim a second term. (Romney needs to find 100 EC votes to prevail.)
At present, the president holds statistically significant (though hardly commanding) leads in plenty of states for him to prevail. And he’s also held steady in a dead-heat tie with Romney nationally for several weeks.
But Romney has clearly grabbed the momentum going into the summer. I’ll be interested to see if this week’s state-by-state polls show him really stepping forward.
I know this feels like horse-race stuff, but the polls that come in over the next couple of weeks could really define what kinds of things get talked about during this campaign.
If Mr. Obama continues to hold onto that slight edge, he may well play it safe, offering a centrist message aimed at holding on to independents in states like Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia.
But if his lead erodes further, we might see a far more populist Harry Truman style message, as many liberals have been urging.
So far, meanwhile, Romney is faring just fine as a relatively undefined “non-Obama.” His policies are still vague, but that doesn’t seem to matter to the many voters who see this as a referendum on the president’s first term.
Romney also still has one more big arrow in his quiver, and that’s his choice of a vice presidential candidate. That choice could give him the extra oomph he needs to break ahead of the president.
Tags: election12, politics
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Nate Silver of 538 has a discussion on the various polls/models including his.
Question. Are most or even all polls done by phone?
If they are, then the polls are highly suspect because most people who have caller ID will never answer the phone if they don’t know who is calling.
I don’t and I sometimes don’t even bother answering the phone when I know who is calling.
I don’t generally answer if I can’t tell who is calling and on occasions when I do, if they identify themselves as pollsters, I hang up. I don’t believe that is a proper way to conduct a presidential election, who’s up, who’s down and what do they have to say to get back on top. I want to hear the candidate’s position on the issues, what they actually intend to do if elected, not just telling voters what they want to hear but have no intention of following through on.
I hope Romney doesn’t pick a no-name senator or governor for a running mate.
“choice of a vice presidential candidate: could give him the extra oomph he needs to break ahead of the president”…or he could do a McCain and sink his own ship right in the harbor. Tricky business, picking a running mate.
I like to talk to pollsters. I also like to tell them a few lies.
I have caller ID, and never pick up unless I recognize the caller, or they identify themselves to leave a message.
If it is a legitimate poll, I will usually answer.
Too soon to call.
I will say that republicans seem to be “falling in line” as you would expect.
When has the selection of a Vice Presidential candidate ever had a big positive impact for a candidate? It seems like one of those do no harm choices, but maybe I am wrong?
I agree with Mervel. The wrong VP pick can hurt (Quayle, Palin). But I can’t think of a VP candidate that helped. Walter Mondale? George HW Bush? Al Gore? Dick Cheney? Joe Biden?
The only one of that lot that may of made a bit of difference is Cheney, and that was more in bringing the Neocons over to Dubya. Don’t think it generated a lot of extra votes for Bush.
The conventional wisdom agrees with Tom L., above. Can hurt, but not help much. I heard somewhere last week that when a fairly popular Ohio Republican politician was sample-tested as Romney’s running-mate in a poll of Ohio likely voters, it hardly moved the needle.
Normally, I would agree re: veepstakes not being such a big deal. But this is such a 50-50 election, that I think in a closely divided state like Ohio or Florida having a native son (or daughter) campaigning there could tip the balance.
–Brian, NCPR
Which is one more reason we should dump our bizarre and antiquated electoral college system! The idea that we should make a potential actual president out of someone chosen for their appeal to the voters of a single state is absurd. Time for direct popular election.
The average voters attention span is way to short to make any predictions this early. Whatever candidate has the strongest 30 second soundbite commercial in the last week or so will probably win. It’s disheartening but unfortunately true. When barely half the eligible voters cast a ballot we get what we deserve.
Indy hit the nail on the head. I’ll only add that whatever “November surprise” has the most appeal the weekend before the election will, sadly, probably determine the winner of the election.
In the last few weeks it seems like the bottom has fallen out of the tub for the president but folks are hanging in there for him. Pretty impressive.
Seems like I’ve seen this horse race before. After the candidate from either side wraps up the nomination they get a big bump in the polls. Same thing after the convention. It is June and as TS Eliot said,
June is the wedding month, forgetting
Candidates fattened in the corn dog spring.
knuck, Mitt Romney had no “bump” in the polls when he finally secured the nomination.
You know how low his numbers would have been without the bump?
Horse race reporting, dissected, here:
http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/mark-halperin-sucks-9717199
I think if unemployment is at 8.2 like today, Obama may lose. If it drops to under 8 he wins.