100 Day Sprint: Yes, Ohio is Romney’s do-or-die state.
As In Boxers know, I fiddle obsessively with polling data and the state-by-stat electoral map. With the latest round of polls showing some upticks of support for Mitt Romney in the West, particularly in Colorado, I decided to grapple with one question:
What is the one really hard but necessary thing that the Republican challenger has to do to unseat Barack Obama?
The answer, unfortunately, isn’t all that fresh or remarkable — but I think it’s still a defining fact in the final 89 days of this campaign. Romney has to win Ohio.
Even if he captures most of the other plausible battlegrounds, from Colorado to Florida to New Hampshire to Virginia, without Ohio Romney almost certainly falls short — allowing Obama to eke out at least a 271 to 267 vote victory in the electoral college.
On the other hand, if Romney can manage to capture Ohio, his path to victory widens significantly. He can lose, say, Colorado and New Hampshire and still emerge with his a ticket to the White House.
So if once again, Ohio will likely decide the fate of us all, where do things stand now?
Frankly, it’s a tough map for the Republican. In the Real Clear Politics average, Obama leads by just under 5%.
In the most recent Quinnipiac poll, the president had expanded that lead to 6% and had cracked the 50% mark. Even the most conservative-leaning pollsters haven’t given Romney an edge in Ohio since early June, and that was within the margin of error.
Making things more complicated is the fact that unemployment in Ohio is just 7.2%, well below the red-line marker of 8% that the GOP has pointed to as evidence of Obama’s policy failures. That makes it tougher for Romney to sell his message.
But while stubborn, 5% is hardly an insurmountable number. The political conventions are still to come.
And some pundits are suggesting that Romney will pick Ohio Sen. Rob Portman to be his running mate in an effort to bring the contest into reach, a move that I think is highly likely.
VP picks rarely define presidential contests, but if Romney chooses someone who can deliver Ohio, or at last put the stat within reach, it may be the most strategically savvy move of a campaign that hasn’t been particularly savvy.
The bottom line is that as polls close on election night, and news coverage rolls from east to west, Ohio will be a big tipping point. If it goes to Romney, it till likely be a long night. If Obama holds it, likely not so much.
Tags: election12
I think that voters, when called by a pollster, should lie to the pollster. That way, polls become so inaccurate that people stop obsessing about them.
Way too early to get all excited over one poll. Romney still hasn’t picked a VP, for one thing. The economy is slowing. Gas prices are rising.
Way, way too early.
When Nate Silver was doing his “which VP gives Romney the highest probability of tipping the election” it was Portman in his model.
Why will a Romney victory in Ohio make it a “long night”? Why not just endorse Obama and be done with it?
This will be a really interesting race. I think Romney’s path is through Virginia, Colorado and Florida, not Ohio, which I think will go for Obama.
Larry – I think Brian meant that it would be a very close election that wouldnt be decided till very late if Romney wins Ohio. If Romney loses Ohio, the election would be basically over.
Of course things could change and it could be a Romney landslide right off the bat, but thats not how it looks now. Thats only an endorsement of the polls, not Obama.
Romney’s problem seems to be that the more most people see of him, the less they like him. Also, he has yet to come forward with a positive program for the economy, only what of Obama’s he will eliminate. This factor’s like these, it kind of amazes me that he has as much support as he does. Lots of Obama haters out there, I guess.
Clarification:
I do not mean that everyone voting for Romney is an Obama hater. Only about 60% are.
Most conservatives, and the Obama campaign, would prefer Ryan as VP choice.
Speaking of long nights, is there any reason the polls need to be open so late in NY?
Why not close them at 7 p.m.? Shouldn’t 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. be more than enough?
I really hate the fact that we in NY know the results in states west of here before we know what they are here.
Romney should have read Nate Silver’s research that showed Portman was his best chance at delivering an important toss-up state (Ohio). Another big mistake by Romney.
Hopefully the media will shine a bright light on the twerp from Wisconsin who considers himself a serious economist because he read a couple utopian fantasy novels by Ayn Rand.
Possibly he considers himself an economist because he has a degree in it. When the name-calling escalates to the point of Brian intervening, remember myown, that you were first.
While it’s true that Ryan graduated from Miami University in Ohio with a bachelor’s degree in economics and political science, that doesn’t make him an economist.
As for the use of “twerp,” I think it’s only a scolding offense when we direct unpleasant names at one another. I agree, though, that it adds nothing useful to the discussion.
Yeah, my bad. I shouldn’t have used the term economist. But he’s a big boy in the public spotlight – I’m sure he has heard worse.
Here’s a page on Ryan from a decidedly liberal site: 12 Things You Should Know About Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan
It might be interesting to discuss. What do our conservative commenters see as inaccurate?
My money was on Portman.
But I’m glad it’s Ryan – that will make it more of a policy election, which is more fun than a pure horse race.
Good article Walker. Ryan is clearly an extremist out of the mainstream and when American voters realize this it will be a detriment to Romney. His record in Congress shows no willingness to compromise with the other party. He will be as polarizing as Palin.
Ryan’s policies and proposed budgets will harm seniors, middle-class, low-income workers, young women and students. It is hard to see how people in those categories would vote for Romney. Romney and Ryan’s policies reward wealth not risk and will result in even greater income inequality.
Romney picked him to make sure his base is excited and I think he needs to get aggressive against Obama and Ryan can do that better than Romney. Probably a good choice politically, but I think it might be risky.
I don’t know what other better choice he could have made?
ThinkProgress is a media outlet of the Center for American Progress, a left-wing organization dominated by former members of the Clinton and Obama administrations, which is markedly different from a “decidedly liberal” organization. As a partisan source it is hard to imagine them saying anything positive about Ryan and their criticism should be viewed in the cointext of their orientation.
Larry, I didn’t say they were unbiased, nor would I expect them to have said anything positive about Ryan. I was curious to know what our conservative commenters thought was factually inaccurate.
Agreed Walker, but saying a web site is “decidedly liberal” is not quite the same as disclosing it’s a mouthpiece for the Obama campaign. That, by the way, points out the problem with the 12 points: while there is an element of truth in each of them, it’s the spin that’s inaccurate. For example, Ryan has repudiated Ayn Rand’s philosophy. The implication is that he’s not being sincere. Can anyone know for certain? Also, ThinkProgress says that Ryan’s budget will cost 4.1M jobs. They know this for a fact? Obviously not, but they present these points as if they were aalready proven. There’s nothing wrong with having an opinion but it should be presented as one.
Obama is going to be forced into taking policy. If he continues with the personal slams, he will look like a Chum-gang guy from the gang streets of Chicago.
The media is going to be hard-pressed to keep his savior-like image glowing if that happens.
Actually, Larry, for my money, their ties to Obama and Clinton make them considerably less left than any number of organizations out there.
You’re right, they shouldn’t have gone with “Ryan embraces the extreme philosophy of Ayn Rand.” They do, though, say “Though he publicly rejected “her philosophy” in 2012, Ryan had professed himself a strong devotee,” and then go on to give a basis for the latter claim. Their lead on that should have been something like “Ryan has been known to embrace the extreme philosophy of Ayn Rand.”
And they do give their source on the 4.1 million jobs claim, though it’s admittedly a liberal source.
Well, it will be interesting to see how the Ryan choice plays out.
Agreed, Walker, I too am interested to see how this choice works out. I don’t have any good feeling for Ryan (or Romney, for that matter) but I hate to see opinion presented as fact.
“…he will look like a Chum-gang guy from the gang streets of Chicago…”
JDM, I think you’re referring to what was called in David Maraniss’ book Obama’s “Choom gang,” which seemed to be a group of partiers from Hawaii, not Chicago, who resembled castoffs from a Cheech and Chong movie. Terrifying, for sure.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/obama-and-his-pot-smoking-choom-gang/.
When casting gang-stereotyping aspersions, at least get the spelling, if not the facts, right.
It’s not just whether Ryan will now try to distance himself from the influence of Rand, it is that a whole segment of the Republican Party and Tea Party are infected with Rand’s sociopathic fantasies. If what you have read about Rand so far doesn’t scare you take a look at this article about her celebration of a psychopathic serial killer as the ideal hero does what he wants without regard for others. Chilling is an understatement.
http://exiledonline.com/paul-ryans-guru-ayn-rand-worshipped-a-serial-killer-who-kidnapped-and-dismembered-little-girls/
I think Ryan is a good political choice. Like I said who else would have been better?
Romney can’t win with his current campaign. He needs to get very nasty right now and he needs excitement, I think Ryan can do both of those things. He is not a Palin, he has policy experience and he is not stupid. His problem is that he has very specific proposals that Romney now has to defend like them or not. It is very hard to even talk about making any changes to medicare unless you are talking about expanding it so that is going to be a big big challenge for these two guys.
I like Ryan better than Romney, but will probably not vote for the ticket.