Can the GOP challenge Bill Owens in 2014?
One of the most dramatic moments on election night 2012 was Matt Doheny’s rapid and final concession speech. He announced that he was stepping away from politics and he questioned whether the NY-21 House district is winnable for Republicans.
“If you look at the results today, I don’t know how Republican this 21st Congressional District is anymore,” Doheny said. “You’ll see with the President Obama numbers. It was very challenging.”
There’s no doubt that GOP leaders in the North Country have faced a headwind the last few years, with a Conservative Party insurrection on their right and a resurgent Democratic Party on their left.
But it’s worth noting that Owens looked very vulnerable in 2009, 2010 and again in 2012. Doheny came darned close each time.
So it’s not like the 21st district is dyed indigo. In theory, this should be a highly competitive district going forward. The problem, put simply, is recruiting.
In a quarter century of watching politics, I’ve concluded that half of winning an election is finding the right candidate, with the right history and the right talent on the stump.
In 2009, Bill Owens represented a coup for Democrats. They fielded a guy who could stay in the game, offering a plausible alternative in a district that had always — and I mean always — gone Republican.
Owens kept it close, stayed on message, and was able to capitalize on conservative disarray. He was the right candidate for the right race.
So the question now is whether Republicans can steal from that play book. Can they find a man or a woman with the resume, the right political stripes, and the patience to go hard at Owens?
First, let’s talk about the hurdles to pulling that off.
The biggest challenge is that so many moderate Republicans have either sided with Owens or left the GOP altogether.
Doheny is out. Big names like Teresa Sayward and Dede Scozzafava have been sidelined by tea party venom, triggered in large part by their moderate social views.
So who does that leave on the bench?
One of the big names in North Country politics, Republican state Senator Joe Griffo, lives outside the newly redrawn 21st district and would have to relocate to take on a risky race.
State Senator Patty Ritchie? She’s popular in her district but lacks a regional profile that would help her to compete in the sprawling geography of the 21st.
State Senator Betty Little? She seems very comfortable and satisfied with her influence in Albany, especially given the more productive climate in the state capital.
Then there are the mayors. Watertown’s Jeff Graham has a great political mind, but he seems happy in his role as a blogger and an occasional gadfly.
Plattsburgh’s Donald Kasprzak looks on paper like a great Republican challenger, but it would be a high-risk venture indeed for one son of Plattsburgh to go up against another.
Finally, there’s Doug Hoffman, the Lake Placid accountant who became a tea party icon in 2009 and 2010. Could he return for another swing at Owens? Everyone I talk to — including tea partiers — believes that that moment has passed.
Which leaves me with just one top-tier name on my back-of-the-napkin list: Queensbury Assemblyman Dan Stec.
Stec is brand new in regional politics, having just stepped up to the legislature from his role as Queensbury town supervisor, but he’s already well known and popular in much of the eastern side of NY21.
His politics are what you might call moderately conservative, which seems just about spot-on for this district. And he would almost certainly win a lot of votes in the population-rich Glens Falls area.
But here again, there are hurdles.
It’s hard to imagine Stec pivoting immediately and beginning another campaign for higher office. There is a rhythm to politics and for Stec to spend his first term in the Assembly campaigning for the House might not scan well.
So this is the first nut Republicans will have to crack if they hope to keep Bill Owens scrambling. They need a great candidate and they need one fairly fast.
The guy (or gal) who wants to bring a serious challenge to Owens will have to start raising (a lot of) money and courting support from county leaders this year — probably in the next six months.
So here’s my prediction: If the GOP does bring a serious fight to the Democrats in NY21 next year — and I’m not entirely sure they will pull that off — the candidate will be someone new, a business leader or a non-traditional candidate.
It will be someone in the mold of Owens himself (who was a businessman when he was recruited by the Democrats) or Chris Gibson, the Army officer-turned-congressman who toppled Democrats in the Hudson River valley.
It will be someone talented enough, fresh enough and interesting enough to raise a ton of cash and keep the race close, hoping that Owens will stumble or the political mood will shift to give the GOP a shot.
What do you think? Any promising Republicans out there in the region who I’ve overlooked? Anyone you think would make a great challenger to Owens?
Comments welcome below.
UPDATE: Chris Morris at the Adirondack Daily Enterprise forwarded to me this twitter exchange from election night 2012, when politics-watchers were already speculating on 2014
@wdtpolitics @OliverBarie Betty Little has the resume, but I think she stays in the state Legislature until she retires.And a few minutes later, Brian Amaral:@ADKchris @OliverBarie Someone’s going to come out of the Saratoga/Warren/Washington area.And then my response:
@OliverBarie @wdtpolitics who knows what Dan Stec will do – he’s young enough, and could be ready to make the leap in two years
I think Pat Ritchie would have a shot at it. Like you say she needs to raise her profile, but she is a solid Republican known for fighting for her constituents and nuts and bolts ideas that often have bipartisan support.
Dede was not sidelined by tea party venom, she was sidelined because she is a Democrat, its not just social issues, she is a good person and a good politician but she is not a Republican. Besides she has a great gig now with the Coumo machine.
I can’t think of anyone else?
Oh my God! I cant even read this. Cant we wait until spring to talk about the next election?
His seat in the House isn’t even warm yet and already you are speculating about who could replace him? That’s what’s wrong with our politics today. It isn’t about accomplishing anything. It’s all about who’s in power and how to manipulate them out and get someone else in. Shouldn’t we be focusing on letting our representatives know what we want them to do in the jobs we put them in? Wouldn’t that be a more productive use of our energy?
Knuck – whoever is going to run has to be thinking about it already if they want a chance. We might as well talk about it too.
Yeah, I get that this post probably sickens the heart of those who want a little reprieve from politics.
But right now, mostly behind closed doors, is when the 2014 contest is being shaped.
Bill Owens raised (and spent) roughly $1.9 MILLION in the last cycle. And that doesn’t touch the outside money that flowed into the race.
So to be competitive — to even hope to unseat a fairly popular incumbent — a Republican challenger needs to raise about $3,000 a day EVERY DAY beginning right now.
It is now 22 months to election day and like it or not, the clock is ticking.
Mervel thinks Ritchie could be a contender. Anyone else have names they think should be on the list?
–Brian, NCPR
The other person I really like who I think should have a shot at Washington is Aubertine, he is a Democrat so that is too bad in this case, although for example he is more conservative than some of these moderate Republicans (so is Owens for that matter). I think he could run as a Republican but probably would not do that, I am not sure a Primary challenge would work?
Patty Ritchie is barely State Senate material, she’d get totally thumped against Owens.
The GOP needs some real, grass roots conservatives with some real life experience and and untarnished past that can speak in terms people can understand. I don;t know if you’ve ever heard Ritchie try and make a speech, but it’s torture worthy of Gitmo.
FWIW, I think if Ownens didn’t have to toe the party line he’d be much more the conservative or moderate Democrat. At least he takes the time, or his staffers do, to reply to constituent letters and emails. Gillibrand and Schumer are completely unresponsive unless you mail them at least a 5 figure cheeck with your concerns.
“Big names like Teresa Sayward and Dede Scozzafava have been sidelined by tea party venom”
Ooohh. That big bad tea party that is sooooo ineffective and soooo full of crazies.
We know who you fear.
Ok fine Rancid, what Republican do you think would have a shot against Owens?
All right, Knuck-
The gig is up. It’s time you admit that jdm is just a silly piece of performance art you and your fellow travelers created to illustrate an impossible level of incomprehension.
First, you make jdm conservative and pit him against left-leaning arguments. Fine.
But if the argument is that Tea Party-ers sidelined candidates capable of defeating left-leaning incumbents, why on earth would anyone on the left “fear” the Tea Party?
You went too far this time. We are so totally on to you now.
I completely agree with Rancid on the suggestion of Patty Richie. I think she’s a bit lacking to be considered a serious challenger to Owens.
JDM –
I don’t fear tea party conservatives — I think they’ve enlivened the debate considerably. But many moderate Republicans clearly do fear them. And their impact on the GOP’s electoral track record has been mixed at best.
Does anyone doubt that if Doug Hoffman, Fox News and the Conservative Party had stayed on the sidelines in 2009 we would have a moderate Republican named Dede Scozzafava representing the 21st district in Washington?
And yes, I get it, a lot of conservatives don’t accept Scozzafava’s GOP bona fides. But that’s really the problem isn’t it?
Conservatives successfully narrowed the definition of what counts as a legitimate Republican and that new definition excluded a lot of people (women especially) who were part of the big-tent movement.
When you decide that your club shouldn’t include a lot of people, your club is going to be smaller — maybe too small to win elections.
–Brian, NCPR
whoever runs almost has to be wealthy and willing to spend a lot of his/her own money. – and then be a good candidate on top of that. Its pretty tough.
The problem is that too many intelligent reasonable people shy away from politics today. Bill Owens is an exception to that rule.
Owens is more conservative than Scozzafava, at some point there is no tent, I don’t think she is a good example of the narrowing.
However you make a good point on the narrowing of single issue items which may push out people who agree with you on 90% of the rest of the agenda.
I know Peter, that is part of the problem the North Country does not have enough rich guys. Why doesn’t someone from Saranac Lake go draft Sandy Weill, I think he is a Republican and lives here most of the time.
Don’t think that Sandy Weill is interested in running (maybe) but has anyone from the SLCSD ever approached him and asked him for money? I have read that they feel that the Adirondacks may have “saved their marriage”. He has given generously to Cornell (to the tune of about 3/4 of a billion dollars at this point). Maybe he could set up a small endowment for the school district?
The North Country has plenty of rich guys.
From what I have understood about his philanthropy, it is totally focused on NYC. His gift to Cornell was only for the Med school located in the City, not for Ithaca.
But yes I would imagine that within the Adirondacks you do indeed have some extremely wealthy people that maybe should be asked to be more involved in helping their second home? I am not talking about just regular rich people, but people like Mr. Weill who are in the different world of wealth. But I would bet everyone has the same idea and the number of guys like him are pretty small. They have to focus their giving.
But who could we get to run against Owens is the question?
Mervel, I don’t know of any Repubs that could mount a serious challenge to Owens. Anyone I can think of that would be a good Congressman would never consider putting himself and his family through that.
I know Dede, I like her. She was not and is not conservative in the sense needed to represent us in Washington. We might as well have Owens because in some ways he’s more conservative than Dede.
I know some don’t understand the “narrowing of the tent” thing, but why vote Republican if you’re just going to get a Democrat? People seem to think the Tea Party thing is about racists and putting women in the kitchen. It’s not, it never was. It’s just the response you got from fiscal conservatives when the GOP turned into whatever it is they are now. A lot of us foolishly believed in that Contract with America the Newt brought us and we thought the spending would slow and we’d have some dollars in our pockets. Instead, well you see what happened. So why would anyone think that fiscal conservatives would support the GOP? Not only are they chasing the Democrats in the rush to spend, now they’re trying to become socially liberal too. It’s a farce. They are toast.
Rancid is correct, you are in the corner there is no reason to vote for a Republican in NY. However we have a Republican Senate which is really fascinating, but the reason that Coumo likes them is that they are essentially Democrats. We don’t have the numbers of true conservatives to really have a two party system in NY so we have one party that fights.
I’m with Knuck. Don’t want to hear it yet. Let’s find something important to discuss.
Jim Bullard says:
February 6, 2013 at 9:27 am
His seat in the House isn’t even warm yet and already you are speculating about who could replace him? That’s what’s wrong with our politics today. It isn’t about accomplishing anything. It’s all about who’s in power and how to manipulate them out and get someone else in. Shouldn’t we be focusing on letting our representatives know what we want them to do in the jobs we put them in? Wouldn’t that be a more productive use of our energy?
Bravo! I couldn’t have said it better myself. The problem with politics today is it is all about winning and not about improving people’s lives.
wj, if only I was that good….
Dan Stec, eye roll. If people knew how ineffective Stec was as Supervisor in Queensbury they wouldn’t have voted for him. Proof? For years Queensbury and Glens Falls have squabbled over several issues one set of those having to do with watershed property Glens Falls holds in Queensbury. Within a month of Stec leaving his replacement (Republican) reached an agreement with Glens Falls Mayor (Democrat) Jack Diamond.
Stec was lucky to have been supervisor of Queensbury because of the enormous sales tax revenue and because it is a bedroom community with lots of growth over the last few decades. If Stec had been supervisor of any other community around his inadequacy as a leader would have become much more apparent.
“When you decide that your club shouldn’t include a lot of people, your club is going to be smaller — maybe too small to win elections.”
Brian Mann: My point is that this group isn’t small and getting smaller. If it was, why all the bother?
It started small to medium, and is becoming a force to be reckoned with, hence the fear.
The media is trying to marginalize it.
The media is trying to stomp on it.
I don’t think you can.
I think 2014 will be see some victorious hard-right victories.
I hope 2016 will be hard-left vs hard-right instead of hard-left vs almost-center.
I agree with JDM. The left and the moderate Repubs fear the TP like nothing we’ve seen in some time. Fiscal responsibility and conservatism? Oh no!!! You can’t stop the use of tax payer dollars used by incumbents to ensure re-election!!!! Lions and tigers and bears, oh my! You will be hard pressed to find any coverage by the mainstream media showing the TP in anything approaching a positive light. While there may not have been an actual orchestrated plan to marginalize the TP, it certainly appears that narrow minds think alike.
I have never understood why people support the idea of unrestrained taxation and spending. The only possible explanation I can think of is that the fools believe they won’t ever have to foot the bill. Well, look at Obamacare and see how that’s going to work out for you and your neighbors. At least 7 million people are going to lose their health coverage.
“From what I have understood about his philanthropy, it is totally focused on NYC. His gift to Cornell was only for the Med school located in the City, not for Ithaca. ”
No plenty of money was spent in Ithaca. In fact I think he has also donated money for a building at Paul Smith’s college (anyone?).
Oh, ok I stand corrected.
Anyway I agree there are very wealthy people up here some of the wealthiest in the country actually.
Again, where Mervel? In SLC where do you see all these undertaxed, wealthy people?
There are plenty of ultra wealthy who own property in the ADKs and on the St Lawrence, but pretty much all of them are permanent resident somewhere else.
Rancid, none in SLC.
There are extremely wealthy people from NYC who have homes in and around Saranac Lake and Lake Placid. There are also extremely wealthy people who own second homes in the thousand islands. As Knuck says most of them are not permanent, a few are but most are not.
SLC does not have this going on.
Why does the district need to have Republican representation? Republicans have become the party of regressive politics and government. The party has lost its way and most people recognize that.
The conservative purge of moderates in the Republican party is why we have Owens instead of Scozzafava. Personally, I have no problem with Owens, but would have many problems with Hoffman and his social views. For people who don’t like big government, conservatives sure like big government running your private lives.
Well you can hold very conservative social views and not make them the centerpiece of how you govern or the issues you believe are political. I mean we have pro-life Democrats for example who don’t make going nuts over abortion the center of what they believe politics can solve one way or the other, and this would not mean they are not fervently anti-abortion.
For me I am a social conservative, but I don’t believe you can really force social issues on the population, social issues come from the population and cannot be imposed upon them, even if the population holds very immoral views.
Buddy, that works both ways- the liberals don’t want gov’t in their bedroom, except of course when it comes to paying for contraception, sex changes, lifts and tucks, wi-fi for porn and abortion. It’s not a one sided argument.
If you go the Adk Daily Enterprises interview with Owens on gin control you’ll see why he will remain in office. He’s more logical and conservative than most Republicans in that area.
It is true Rancid it indeed goes both ways. Social liberals are just as controlling as social conservatives in many ways for what they want to impose. I mean look at the issue of abortion, RvW didn’t legalize abortion, abortion was already legal in the US when RvW was passed. What RvW said was that states and or other local governments HAD to make it legal, it was telling them what to do. The same goes for this healthcare mandate making by order of law Churches and businesses pay for things they find immoral. So the state is forcing it’s morality down their throat, going directly against religious freedom.
So you are certainly right it cuts both ways.
I’m right? Could you say that louder so my wife could hear you?