Will these scandals cripple Obama? Probably not.
President Barack Obama during a meeting in the Oval Office. Official White House Photo by Pete Souza
Let me say again that I think the trifecta of scandals hovering around the White House warrant serious investigation and a credible probe of the facts. And it remains unclear where that path will lead.
But as the summer fug settles over Washington DC, I think it’s increasingly clear that — barring new revelations — the political fall-out from the mess will be far less damaging than Republicans and conservatives hope. Here are six reasons why.
1. So far, it’s just not playing outside the I Hate Obama community. Yes, these accusations are serious. But most Americans don’t seem to be buying the conservative narrative that the jury is in and guilt has already been fixed. Remember that we’ve been down this road before. In the 1990s, Republicans thought they had a convincing scandal narrative that would permanently alienate voters from Bill Clinton. From Whitewater to Lewinsky, they painted a portrait that, in the Rush-Limbaugh-sphere was utterly damning. Americans didn’t buy it and Clinton had a successful second term.
2. The Republican narrative is muddled. There are two completely contradictory stories being told. The first is that Mr. Obama is a quota candidate, a lazy guy elected for his blackness who has no real qualifications. He is a bungler, who plays too much golf. The second narrative is that he is a kind of Machiavellian “Chicago” style manipulator, a tyrannical figure who is using the engines of power to strip Americans of their freedom. I sometimes hear conservatives make both claims in a single paragraph. One charge might stick. Both won’t.
3. Republicans are letting the crazy show. Remember back in 2012 when Mitt Romney was being creamed by that horrible video tape that showed him talking down the “47 percent”? Barack Obama’s team went silent. They let the story play out, knowing that when the torpedoes are in the water the best thing to do is stay out of the way and hope for a big explosion. The GOP doesn’t have that kind of discipline. There’s wild talk of impeachment. On Fox News people are being compared to Adolph Hitler and Richard Nixon. Local conservative activist Bob Schulz, from Queensbury, described the IRS as “the largest, most feared terrorist organization in the Western Hemisphere,” in an interview with the Glens Falls Post Star. That kind of stuff makes average Americans think this is just more culture war noise.
4. Liberals got no place to go. One reason these last couple of weeks have looked so bad for the White House — and this gets overlooked in a lot of the analysis — is that liberals are furious, too. The MSNBC and Huffingtonpost chattering class has been frustrated with Obama for years and these scandals, especially the Justice Department’s AP probe, have opened the floodgates. Which means that people who would normally be defending the president are slapping him around. But barring ugly new disclosures, that won’t last.
5. Obama is a tenth-round fighter. People forget this over and over. And over. I hear from my liberal and my conservative friends the same idea, that this president flops or he concedes too early or he won’t get angry or he doesn’t know how to throw a punch. Yes, this White House is cautious. Clearly. But it also has a record of beating down opponents slowly and steadily. Ask Hillary Clinton or John McCain or Mitt Romney or the opponents of Obamacare or people who didn’t want gays in the military or the people who thought the Solyndra or the Fast and Furious accusations would stick.
6. The economy is doing pretty well. This is the biggy. This is the firewall. Republicans worked feverishly over the last half decade to convince Americans that this president couldn’t fix the economy and that he would bankrupt us along the way. America is the next Greece! But unemployment is down and the stock market is up, and that’s a big contrast with the situation in European countries that embraced austerity. Meanwhile, the Federal budget deficit is plummeting — shrinking from 10% of GDP at the height of the recession to roughly 2% of GDP by 2015, according to a new Congressional study. If those numbers keep up, it will be hard for the Republicans to get people excited about Benghazi or about the idea that Obama is a failed president.
So with Obama’s approval rating holding steady at 49%, here’s my prediction.
By mid-summer, barring another big shoe dropping, this round of scandal will be added to the massive pile of resentments that have built up among conservatives.
The right will see this as another “smoking gun” moment that the rest of America — all the “low information” voters — failed to grasp.
But as their 401ks and their home values and their job prospects perk upwards, the rest of the country will have moved on to barbecues and holidays and summer blockbuster movies.
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To point #6: “The first quarter of 2012 was apparently a big one for businesses in Warren County.”
http://poststar.com/news/local/warren-county-officials-question-sales-tax-numbers-reported-by-state/article_71bc4216-bf35-11e2-b63b-0019bb2963f4.html
“Republicans worked feverishly over the last half decade to convince Americans that this president couldn’t fix the economy and that he would bankrupt us along the way”
I would say Republicans worked feverishly to keep Obama from fixing the economy. As it improves more and more people will look back and see that things would have gotten better sooner if the Republicans cooperated even just a little bit. Then they will look at the on-going partisan investigations and even more sensible people will leave the Republican Party for good. It is the reverse bandwagon effect; you’re riding around on the wagon and people start getting off. Pretty soon you realize that the percentage of nut-balls is getting high. Then you see a family on the sidewalk pointing at you and you realize, “if I don’t get off this wagon everyone is going to think I’m a nut too” and you get off the wagon.
I think by 2012 the PS really means 2013. But let’s not get too picky about proper editing and getting facts right. They are understaffed and overworked as it is.
The problem with the the trifecta of scandals is that they don’t affect the average person. I think this is why the average person couldn’t care less.
Benghazi is fast approaching 9 months old.
AP? The press is not well liked, so who cares but the press.
The IRS thing? While no one likes the IRS – surprise, surprise – many people feel there are too many not for profits (a joke if there ever was one with people drawing down big pay at them) and everyone including churches and political parties should start paying taxes.
To tell the truth, I’ve pretty much stopped listening or watching the news because of these stories. I listen until the talking heads start fussing and fuming about these scandals and then turn it off.
soon it will be summer vacation time in DC, with nothing settled. way to go, mission accomplished
I just have to respond to two of your main points:
“4. Liberals got no place to go.”
Which is part of the problem with our country’s dysfunctional two party duopoly. Both parties assume that their bases have “no place to go” and people have been brainwashed into thinking they must vote for one of the two main parties. our democracy would be a lot healthier if we had a multiparty system like Canada, the UK, Germany, or France.
“6. The economy is doing pretty well.”
If you’re part of the wealthiest one percent, the economy is doing great. http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2013/02/12/1579211/1-percent-121-gains/ (Some socialist that Obama is). If you’re one of the millions long term unemployed or tens of millions of unemployed, it’s not doing so well. Obama and Congress need to stop focusing on distractions like Benghazi and immigration, and need to focus on the top issues facing the country: a lack of jobs and economic decline for the bottom 99%.
of the trifecta, I get the sense that the Republicans are really only interested now in the IRS part. Theyve been banging the Benghazi thing for close to a year now and even they must be getting bored with it. They dont seem to have any interest at all in the AP scandal. The IRS scandal though is perfect for them – taxes, conspiracy, impeach obama etc. The rest of us citizens may not care too much (although if it was Nixon going after the public employee unions we liberals would be up in arms). I think it depends on whether they can drag the hearings out – they have to find stuff – new revelations – how high does it go etc.
They could,of course, focus on fixing the regulations so that the 504c (or whatever) is easier to administer.
Why is it always about the Republicans? We have a Democrat President and the scandals are coming out of his administration. Is it possible Obama is responsible for something? Anything?
Nice analysis, but it’s all about point #6.
If the economy holds up, Obama wins.
If the economy folds, it’s over.
It would be about the same with or without the scandals.
One of the fundamental narratives of conservatives is that “government cant do anything”. This is exactly the defense of that that IRS is claiming, but the Republicans are having none of it.
Scratchy –
President Obama’s most loyal base is the African American community, where unemployment (especially long-term unemployment) is highest – above 13% and that probably understates the problem. For the rest of the US, unemployment has dropped to just over 6%. So the politics of the economy right now lean heavily in Obama’s favor. The people who are suffering the most are the ones who, as I noted in the OP, aren’t going anywhere. The mostly white, mostly suburban people Republicans are trying to win over — in part by leveraging these scandals — are doing much better now than they were a couple years ago.
Original Larry –
First, only two out of my six points here have something to do with Republicans. Second, when I’m talking about the politics of this scandal and how they might affect Obama’s second term, it’s hard to frame an argument without bringing in the GOP. Let me draw your eye again to my very first paragraph. Politics aside, I think the substance of these scandals deserve more investigation.
–Brian, NCPR
Brian Mann says:
May 19, 2013 at 9:00 am
Scratchy –
President Obama’s most loyal base is the African American community, where unemployment (especially long-term unemployment) is highest – above 13% and that probably understates the problem. For the rest of the US, unemployment has dropped to just over 6%. So the politics of the economy right now lean heavily in Obama’s favor. The people who are suffering the most are the ones who, as I noted in the OP, aren’t going anywhere. The mostly white, mostly suburban people Republicans are trying to win over — in part by leveraging these scandals — are doing much better now than they were a couple years ago.
Did you see my link to the study showing that 121% of the income gains of 2010-2011 went to the top 1% (meaning income for the bottom 99% declined while it was rising for the top 1%)? Most white suburban voters are not part of the top 1%.
Also, 6% unemployment for nonAfrican Americans is relatively high by historic standards (remember the Clinton years when total unemployment was below 4%?).
And, in any event, the number of unemployed is understated by the number of “discouraged workers” who have stopped looking for work. As someone who is long-term unemployed, I can tell you that dropping out of the workforce can make sense, given how expensive an endeavor looking for work can be (with all the expenses associated with dry cleaning suits, traveling to interviews and networking events, printing resumes and cover letters, making or purchasing business cards, etc.). The number of people dropping out of the work force is reflected in a number of statistics, including the decline in the labor force participation rate and the increase in the number of people receiving and applying for Social Security Disability. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/13/decline-in-labor-force-participation-could-be-reversed/
http://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/
Also, to add to my prior post, the labor force participation rate has declined from 65.7% to 63.3% over the last four year, a decline of 2.4 percentage points. If that decline had not taken place and the population represented by the 2.4 percentage point decline was still looking for work, the unemployment rate would be approximately 9.9%, instead of the current 7.5%.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
Brian,
You mention Republicans by name in four of the six points you laid out. That said, isn’t Obama responsible for anything? Who is running the government? Certainly Republicans aren’t cooperating, but why should they? There are fundamental differences between the two parties and our system of government ensures that one party generally can’t get too far down a radical road without the other party putting the brakes on. Democrats don’t seem to understand that; they seem more interested in bitching about the opposition than in working with them. Like their leader they seem bitterly resentful of anyone who questions them or, god forbid, actually opposes them.
I kind of agree although I think there still may be more to come out. As far as the “crazy” goes, the issue of the IRS investigating and targeting conservative groups has been brought up for at least a year in the conservative blog world, but of course was ignored by mainstream media. What else has been ignored?
I totally agree comparisons to Adolf Hitler are truly crazy and very wrong. Comparisons to Nixon, not so much. Using the IRS to target political enemies is EXACTLY what Nixon did, I don’t think we could avoid the comparison nor should we. The Libya thing has been played totally wrong so far by the Republicans, but the big loser there will be Clinton if they continue to investigate as they should, something went wrong there that looks to me to be worse than bungling.
Clinton’s scandals were about personal finance and adultery, I think the US population has pretty well changed on how they view those things and I don’t think in the future they will bring down people. However these scandals are about abuse of power, something that in general we are less sympathetic with.
As far as being incompetent and yet using Chicago style methods, I think Blogo pretty much shows us both these things are possible at once.
But he won’t be impeached and the Republicans should let that go unless there is truly something leading straight and clear to the White House. For example if it can be shown Obama personally knew about and ordered the IRS to investigate and hold up tea party tax status reviews. Other than that it is a political loser, the US public has impeachment fatigue. Clinton WAS impeached and the public blamed the GOP for dragging us through the whole thing.
Obama has learned what Bush knew – the lamestream media are sheep and more concerned about corporate profits than pursuing investigative journalism. It is unbelievable what a President can get away with. And I am not talking about personal affairs and that kind of sophomoric ilk. I am talking about serious stuff like lying us into a needless and financially destructive war. Ignoring the Geneva Convention and torturing prisoners. Raising the level of fear with stupid color codes just before elections. Irresponsible tax cuts that did not spur the economy – just dramatically increased the debt.
And now assassinating American citizens simply on the order of the President. Flying military drones over sovereign airspace and killing innocent civilians. Enhancing surveillance of US citizens with no oversight or checks. Supporting the broadest definition of terrorist and indefinite detention of even US citizens.
The Obama administration has taken lessons from Bush’s Dept of Justice. But instead of wasting lawyer time creating bizarre memos justifying torture, we now have a Justice Dept that only goes after those that dare expose government failures. Instead of prosecuting executives of the banks that destroyed the US economy and committed outright fraud in mortgage and other related areas, our Justice Dept is busy trying to silence anyone who brings government malfeasance to our attention. And just to prove how tough they are in protecting government PR and corporate profits they are full out prosecuting an 82 year old pacifist nun as a felony terrorist. Of course they are not going after the private corporation that completely failed to provide the protection of a nuclear facility for which services they are amply compensated by the government.
And this is with a Democrat as President (obviously a DINO). It will only get much worse under the next Republican President. It is time for citizens (and even the press) to expose government suppression and corporate criminality and have a Justice Department that works for and is accountable to the American people and to restore peoples’ rights taken away by the Patriot Act and the many acts and Executive Orders that have transformed our nation from freedom to fear.
http://www.alternet.org/civil-liberties/how-us-turned-three-pacifists-multiple-felony-saboteurs
http://www.alternet.org/civil-liberties/6-brave-govt-whistleblowers-charged-under-espionage-act-obamas-administration
Obama personally will survive because the opposition is too pathetic and tone deaf to exploit it (why focus on haze-of-war Benghazi when there are perfectly real scandals, IRS and AP, to latch on to?). But I expect Dems will take a beating in 2014.
“Liberals got no place to go”
Or so they let themselves think. They’ve made themselves powerless by refusing to exercise the power they have, by holding their own sad pols accountable.
Liberals have pretty much abandoned their principles and any pretense of backbone and have now relegated themselves to being merely the anti-Tea Party.
More of my friends are liberals than not but the overwhelming majority of their political commentary and posts is bashing the right-wing villain of the week, even if he/she has no actual power. Mainstream liberals are mostly the same as the conservatives they denounce: 1% about what they’re for and 99% about what they’re against.
A Green Party friend of mine once told me that the biggest obstacle to the progressive agenda was mainstream liberals. I thought it was just his usual hyperbole. I’ve come to believe he was absolutely right.
“But as the summer fug settles over Washington DC”
Speaking of editing, don’t you have spell check?
For Paul:
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/fug
Chris, Thanks. I guess I learned a new word today. It is a good one too!
What is his agenda that this threatens?
The biggest issue he has to deal with is this perception that he is asleep at the wheel. Much of the media seemed to focus on this over the weekend as they looked at these scandals. His guy on the news this weekend didn’t seem to have prepared well and the press had a field day.
On the IRS and AP thing it appears that he didn’t have any clue (maybe that is good for him). On the Libya deal it appears that when that was happening he did not talk to anyone high up in the state department and the press secretary guy doing the interview didn’t even know where the president was? This is all unfortunate but probably not a game-ender.
But I think that most of the press is doing a crummy job. The news isn’t about the issues it is about how these issues might affect the president like this blog. This will help the president as it takes focus off the core issues and focuses it on how this is perceived (as if it really matters).
Has the AP issue made potential sources say they have no interest in being sources anymore? It seems like a big deal if you can’t have any assurance that your sources are protected. That is what I would like to know. Then you can decide if any of this really matters.
From the Washington Post, the top headline:
“White House senior aides knew about IRS probe but didn’t tell Obama, spokesman says”
That is something you might want to tell the boss (even if the report isn’t quite finished yet)?
Paul: Obama’s instituted a culture of war against whistleblowers, so it’s no surprise that messengers are afraid to be shot.
On Brian’s point number 3 he and Charles Krauthammer are on the same page. This from his Post opinion piece:
“Note to GOP re Benghazi: Stop calling it Watergate, Iran-contra, bigger than both, etc. First, it might well be, but we don’t know. History will judge. Second, overhyping will only diminish the importance of the scandal if it doesn’t meet presidency-breaking standards. Third, focusing on the political effects simply plays into the hands of Democrats desperately claiming that this is nothing but partisan politics.”
This is really true. The facts will come out on all of these matters and then people can decide if they matter. The only pitfall is too much focus on if it matters before we know everything. I don’t think the press is going to let any of these things go for some time. It may not cripple the president but it isn’t going to help. Meanwhile the middle east is on fire again and North Korea is throwing ballistic rocks at it’s neighbors.
I think there is a difference between a “whistle blower” and a “leaker”. This new revelation that the DOJ had been monitoring white house reporters email doesn’t sound like they were after a “whistle blower”. Especially since the guy worked for Fox News.
I wonder how much this has to do with the new monitoring systems that were put in place under Bush and expanded under Obama? Largely due to technology and our increasing reliance on the internet the have become very effective. We don’t know what to do with all of this data, when you are automatically getting data I think it may be very hard not to use it, when the NSA is indeed literally archiving every single email sent in the US; it must be very tempting not to dive into all of that info.