Canadian elections: yes, no, maybe so?

It’s been week of almost day-by-day change in Canadian politics – which only means predictions could change yet again.

A fall federal election has been looming ever since politicians returned from their summer break. Even though a recent poll indicated 71% of those surveyed see no need for an election at this time.

On Monday, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff painted his vision for Canada in contrast to the last three-plus years under the Conservatives. Ignatieff’s address to the Canadian Club of Ottawa concluded with a slogan designed for campaigning: “We can do better”.

On Tuesday, the Ottawa Citizen headlined that an election could be triggered as soon as this Friday.

But by Tuesday afternoon, the word was “not this week” as Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe said his party would support Prime Minister Stephen Harper in Friday’s vote, averting an election for now. (Duceppe also said the Bloc would vote against Harper if a confidence motion comes to the floor.)

The reprieve came just prior to Harper meeting with President Obama in Washington.

By Wednesday the NDP was in the game, saying that party would support the Conservatives to make sure boosts in employment insurance (called unemployment benefits in the U.S.) are not derailed by a fall election.

The irony – some would say hypocrisy – of Conservative rule being propped up by the NDP and the Bloc is especially acute when a recent video of Harper has him invoking the specter of Liberals forming another coalition supported by “the socialists and the separatists”.

Harper’s Conservative minority government does not have enough votes to stay afloat without the support of at least one other party. The day the Liberals, the Bloc and the NDP all vote against Harper on some measure of confidence (which includes many budget items), down he goes. Right now, that’s still a moving target.

Should it happen, voters would be treated to their 4th federal election since 2004. Since so few Canadians want an election, what’s going on?

Here are some theories: if the Liberals wait too long, Canada’s depressed economy could recover, which will only strengthen the Conservative party’s claim to successful governance. Ignatieff must act to remain relevant, starting with a sufficiently convincing justification for forcing an election.

Some cynics have suggested the Bloc is safeguarding Bloc MPs who are just shy of the 6 years it takes to be vested for Parliamentary pensions, which would be placed at risk in a fall election. (This situation applies to MPs from other parties too.) Another jaded view explains the NDP flip. After never voting to support the Conservatives, NDP Leader Jack Layton has taken a hard look at the polls and has suddenly decided his party can hold its nose and prop up the enemy after all.

The posturing, situational ethics and ‘blame game’ on display contribute to already high levels of voter apathy.

Elections here can take as little as 6 weeks. But they are still a costly exercise. Disgust over political gamesmanship might just push a fed-up electorate to seek relief.

If voters could get over their ill-ease with Harper, the easiest way to curb election hyperactivity would be to give someone a majority. And right now, Harper’s Conservatives seem closest to that elusive goal.