Rothenberg: NY23 "Another train wreck for House Republicans?"

Writing in Roll Call this week, the respected non-partisan analyst Stuart Rothenberg says “GOP insiders have grown extremely nervous about the” chances of Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava.

Rothenberg cites poor fundraising, the “lack of a compelling message to a Republican base” and weak poll numbers around Syracuse.

“She needs a solid win in the Syracuse area, and she isn’t getting anything close to that,” one veteran dispassionate analyst from the area said.

Her biggest problem is an attack from the right — Conservative Doug Hoffman and allied groups such as the Club for Growth.

But Rothenberg suggests that Scozzafava’s TV ad campaign has been ineffective and outgunned.

“If Dede doesn’t raise money and get on TV, there is only one direction for her to go, and it’s down,” a thoughtful Republican said.

The bottom line, according to Rothenberg: “She is in real trouble.”