GOP’s third party conundrum

Next month, Republicans hope to reclaim the national momentum by picking off two governor’s seats — in New Jersey and Virginia — currently held by Democrats.

They also hope to retain the 23rd district House seat here in the North Country, vacated by John McHugh when he took the Army Secretary post.

The problem? The GOP might lose two out of three of those races. And in both cases, the trouble lies with third party candidates.

Republican Dede Scozzafava’s campaign has been discombobulated from the start by Conservative challenger Doug Hoffman, whose “Dede’s too liberal” message has been relentless.

Hoffman is siphoning away crucial votes and crucial dollars, making it possible that Democrat Bill Owens could win with as low as 40% of the popular vote.

A similar situation is shaping up in New Jersey. Democratic incumbent Governor Jon Corzine is deeply unpopular.

But a third-party independent candidate is dividing the opposition vote, complicating the fight for Republican Chris Christie.

Here’s Politico‘s take:

The result has left the Republican grappling with a two-headed Hydra that could enable a narrow plurality win for the deeply unpopular incumbent.

Republicans have been down this road before. In 1992, Ross Perot sucked up roughly 19% of the vote, leaving George H.W. Bush with only 37.4%.

As a consequence, Democrat Bill Clinton captured the White House with only 43% of the popular vote.

Democrats suffered a similar fate in 2000. Ralph Nader hoovered up fewer than 3% of the vote nationally , but in a couple of key states (Florida!) that difference might have been crucial.

Obviously, all of these third-party candidates have every right to be in these races.

Some of them carry important or at least interesting messages, tackling issues ignored by the major party candidates.

But the fact remains that in this year’s political season, that third name on the ballot could be disastrous for Republicans hoping to begin rebuilding.