Owens wins Week Nine – Third Weekly Win In A Row

OWENS

Fundraising numbers are out today and Democrat Bill Owens is pulling away, with far more money in the bank than opponents Dede Scozzafava (Republican) and Doug Hoffman (Conservative).

That’s just one of the markers that give Owens the win for the week, his third In Box title in a row — reflecting his campaign’s clear momentum.

Owens also met this week briefly with President Barack Obama in New York City. But his biggest accomplishment remains pretty much the same: avoiding the Republican-Conservative bloodbath.

George Joseph, GOP chairman in Oneida County, has thrown in the towel:

“ Do I write off this election? Absolutely. Unless something – a revelation comes through regarding Hoffman, or there’s a change in events for the Democrats — the Democrat’s going to win.That’s how we lose elections.”

SCOZZAFAVA

Weeks don’t get any worse than this for political campaigns. (Except, that is, in the week when they lose.)

Scozzafava allowed herself to be posed in front of Doug Hoffman’s headquarters, backed by (swallowed by?) a sea of pro-Hoffman signs.

She had a strong message to deliver, that Hoffman needs to agree to some debates, but she looked weary and sounded muddled.

Meanwhile, her campaign called the cops on a conservative-press reporter from the Weekly Standard.

In the Politics For Dummies rulebook, there’s a whole chapter on not calling the cops on reporters, especially ones who can help gin up an even bigger ideological backlash against your campaign.

Finally, Scozzafava appears to be trailing dead-last in the money race. Even if something big does break her way the last week of this race, it’s hard to see how she can capitalize.

One positive note: Scozzafava is heading off on an RV whistestop tour. If she can get a good night’s sleep and get back to her positive, friendly down-to-earth message (the one familiar to people in her district) she might begin to reconnect with voters.

HOFFMAN

Doug Hoffman is riding a rocket ship. He is (and I mean no snarkiness here) the new Sarah Palin. He’s been featured in hagiographic terms on radio programs by Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, and Glenn Beck.

He’s the favorite of conservative icons ranging from Steve Forbes to Palin to Dick Armey. And he also has plenty of money to spend the final couple of weeks.

The big question that remains for Hoffman is electability. He was ten points behind Bill Owens in the Siena poll released a week ago.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, no slouch when it comes to handicapping politics, still describes Scozzafava as the best bet to keep the seat out of Democratic hands, calling her the “practical choice.”

In his blog today, Jimmy Vielkind wrestles with the question, Is there a Hoffman Scenario?

Vielkind doesn’t answer the question, but he does say this:

The thing is that most people—myself included—have written off Hoffman as a mere spoiler. We shouldn’t have assumed.

I agree that Hoffman has transcended spoiler status. Scozzafava might well come in third. But can he beat Bill Owens?

Unless Scozzafava drops out, the math is very difficult indeed.