Doug Hoffman could win

For thousands of Doug Hoffman supporters, this observation — that he could emerge victorious — is roughly akin to saying that the sun could rise tomorrow in the east.

But when this race began back in the summer, the idea of a third-party neophyte upsetting the two big parties at their own game seemed — improbable.

Then Hoffman’s small-government, low tax message mingled with growing anger at the “establishment” Republican Party, which had chosen moderate Dede Scozzafava.

That chemistry mingled again with the tea party-town hall furor of the summer and ignited.

The result? Hundreds of thousands of dollars funneling into the region from national donors and interest groups.

Passionate activism by many locals who believe that Republicans as well as Democrats have “abandoned” them.

Mr. Hoffman’s campaign has harnessed that energy efficiently and effectively, wreaking havoc on the campaign of Scozzafava. ‘

At last night’s debate, Scozzafava acknowledged being outspent “15-to-1,” but she also acknowledged interest groups’ right to contribute money.

In a low-turnout special election — where voters will be split three-way — that could very well be enough to spark a victory.

Many observers have been critical of Doug Hoffman’s campaign, including the alleged use of “dirty tricks” by his supporters and his decision to avoid most of the public forums and debates.

The Watertown Daily Times, in particular, has criticized Mr. Hoffman for, in their view, being uninformed about many regional issues.

When asked a series of questions about the district last week, Mr. Hoffman drew blanks in several areas. We cannot wait for Mr. Hoffman, who has been co-opted by the right-wing national politicians, to do his homework.

What’s certain, however, is that Mr. Hoffman is riding a wave of concern among many conservative voters, who worry about the erosion of traditional values and the expansion of government.

There is now a clear path to victory for the third-party Conservative, who on November 4th could emerge as the congressman from New York’s 23rd district.