DailyKos/Research 2000: Owens leads, Hoffman surging, Scozzafava fades

It’s official — or at least as official as opinion polling can make it.

Lake Placid Conservative Doug Hoffman has pushed ahead of Republican Dede Scozzafava — and very nearly tied Democrat Bill Owens.

Here are the numbers: Owens 33%, Hoffman 32%, Scozzafava 21%.

The good news for Owens is that he continues to gain ground among rank-and-file Democrats, picking up 64% of that tally.

It’s also worth noting that a chunk of Scozzafava’s anemic showing comes from Democrats — not Republicans — who seem to be shifting away from her.

That said, for the first time Doug Hoffman leads among Republicans, capturing 41% of that vote compared with her 34% showing.

He also expanded his dominance of the independent vote, picking up 47% of that group, compared with Owens’ 28%.

Here’s the DailyKos’s take on their own poll:

If Scozzafava’s fade continues, Hoffman will win this thing. Democratic chances hinge on halting the Hoffman surge, which is why the DCCC has trained its guns on the conservative party candidate.

My questions:

1. Is there a floor to Dede Scozzafava’s support? She’s very popular in her chunk of the North Country. Will that group of Republicans abandon her, too, and shift to Hoffman?

2. Will nervous Democrats shift from Scozzafava to Owens, shoring him up a bit?

3. Will Democratic attacks on Hoffman — launched very late in the game — have any impact on his surge? Or did the Dems overlook him too long?

4. And what about those 14% who are still undecided?