Bill Owens wins 23rd; Hoffman concedes – historic election ends in upset

For the first time in more than a century, NY-23 is represented by a Democrat. Bill Owens is congressman-elect.

That’s one more vote for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi; one more vote for Barack Obama’s health care plan.

This race had so many twists and turns that it left everyone — myself included — completely bamboozled.

My private prediction today? A Douglas Hoffman victory, maybe a big one. I was wrong. The polls were wrong.

More to the point, the Republican Party and the conservative movement writ large got it wrong.

The mood at Hoffman HQ in Saranac Lake was truly mournful: the sense here was of a crusade abruptly interrupted, a march on Washington cut short.

In his concession speech Hoffman urged his followers to fight on. But the simple fact is that in this very rural, traditionally Republican district voters chose a Democrat.

A year into the Obama presidency and rural northern New York chose a Democrat.

We’ll be picking through the tea leaves of this one for some time, but three quick takeaways.

1. For thousands of people around the country this was Big Politics. It was Ideology and History. But for a lot of people here it was a story about Doug Hoffman, a local guy who wanted to make a difference.

2. Movement conservatives called this wrong. They mugged a moderate Republican — they beat Dede Scozzafava handily — but she slugged back. Her counterpunch may have cost Hoffman the race.

3. Bill Owens played the role of sane, friendly, grounded Democrat perfectly. Critics chided him for his lack of passion, his lack of spark. But in an election defined by histrionics and talk-show blather (not to mention way too many blog posts…) voters chose him.